数学题 - 1

A course of pure mathematics, G.H.Hardy

P34

chapterⅠ Real Variables

  1. If a,b,c are positive,and \( a+b+c=1 \),then
    \( (\frac{1}{a}-1)(\frac{1}{b}-1)(\frac{1}{c}-1) \geq 8. \) (Math. Trip. 1932)

if a>0 and b>0 then \( \frac{a+b}{2} \geq \sqrt{ab} \)

\( a>0, b>0, c>0, a+b+c=1 \)

\( (\frac{1}{a}-1)(\frac{1}{b}-1)(\frac{1}{c}-1) \)

\(=\frac{b+c}{a} \times \frac{a+c}{b} \times \frac{a+b}{c} \)

\( \geq 2 \times \frac{\sqrt{bc}}{a} \times 2 \times \frac{\sqrt{ac}}{b} \times 2 \times \frac{\sqrt{ab}}{c} = 8 \)

求极限

p207, No.5

\( \lim_{x \to \infty} \sqrt{x}(\sqrt{x+a}-\sqrt{x}) \)

p207, No.8

\( \lim_{x \to \infty} x^3(\sqrt{x^2+\sqrt{x^4+1}}-x \sqrt{2}) \)

求原函数

p281, No.53

\( \int \frac{x-1}{(x+1) \sqrt{x(x^2+x+1)}}dx \)

p263, No.6

\( \int \frac{1}{x \sqrt{3x^2+2x+1}}dx \)

有理数跟自然数等势

\( NXN \sim N \)

笛卡儿坐标系第一象限内的整数格点是直观地能一笔画联起来的,我是用y=-x的平行线簇,从原点出发,呈锯齿状把所有整数格子点串起来,这就表明NXN的元素是可以线性化的,即能存储到一个数组里

具体的双射关系是:

\( f(\langle a, b \rangle)=\frac{(a+b)(a+b+1)}{2}+b \)

反函数 \( g(a)=\langle \frac{1}{2N(N+3)}-a, a-\frac{1}{2N(N+1)} \rangle \) ,其中 \( N=floor(\frac{\sqrt{8a+1}-1}{2}) \)

是把横纵坐标联立后解一个一元二次方程得的这个结果

LeetCode - Algorithms - 815. Bus Routes

Hard problem. Accepted after four submissions. Done by myself.

Problem

815. Bus Routes

Java

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class Solution {
public boolean routesIntersect(int[] route1, int[] route2) {
boolean r = false;
Set<Integer> tmpSet = new HashSet<Integer>();
for(int i=0; i<route1.length; i++)
tmpSet.add(route1[i]);
for(int i=0; i<route2.length; i++) {
if (tmpSet.contains(route2[i])) {
r = true;
break;
}
}
return r;
}

public boolean inArray(int[] a, int x) {
boolean b = false;
for(int i=0; i<a.length; i++) {
if (x==a[i]) {
b = true;
break;
}
}
return b;
}

public int numBusesToDestination(int[][] routes, int S, int T) {
if (S==T) return 0;
int minDist = Integer.MAX_VALUE;

int h = routes.length;

List<Integer> list_S = new ArrayList<Integer>();
for (int i = 0; i < h; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < routes[i].length; j++) {
if (routes[i][j]==S) {
list_S.add(i);
}
}
}

Map<Integer, List<Integer>> reachableRouteMap = new HashMap<Integer, List<Integer>>();
for(int i=0; i<h; i++) {
List<Integer> list = new ArrayList<Integer>();
for(int j=0; j<h; j++) {
if (j!=i && routesIntersect(routes[i],routes[j])) {
list.add(j);
}
}
reachableRouteMap.put(i,list);
}

boolean[] visited = new boolean[h];
for (int i = 0; i < h; i++) {
visited[i] = false;
}

Queue<Node> q = new LinkedList<>();
for(Integer i : list_S) {
Node s = new Node(i, 1);
q.add(s);
}

while (!q.isEmpty()) {
Node curr = q.poll();
visited[curr.route] = true;
if (inArray(routes[curr.route], T)) {
return curr.dist;
}
List<Integer> list = reachableRouteMap.get(curr.route);
for(Integer idx : list) {
if (visited[idx]==false) {
Node node = new Node(idx, curr.dist+1);
q.add(node);
}
}
}

if (minDist == Integer.MAX_VALUE)
minDist = -1;
return minDist;
}

class Node {
int route;
int dist;

public Node(int route, int dist) {
this.route = route;
this.dist = dist;
}
}
}

Submission Detail

  • 45 / 45 test cases passed.
  • Runtime: 1156 ms, faster than 5.02% of Java online submissions for Bus Routes.
  • Memory Usage: 48.2 MB, less than 100.00% of Java online submissions for Bus Routes.

5 tips to improve your critical thinking - Samantha Agoos - TED-Ed

Every day, a sea of decisions stretches before us. Some are small and unimportant, but others have a larger impact on our lives. For example, which politician should I vote for? Should I try the latest diet craze? Or will email make me a millionaire? We’re bombarded with so many decisions that it’s impossible to make a perfect choice every time. But there are many ways to improve our chances, and one particularly effective technique is critical thinking. This is a way of approaching a question that allows us to carefully deconstruct a situation, reveal its hidden issues, such as bias and manipulation, and make the best decision. If the critical part sounds negative that’s because in a way it is. Rather than choosing an answer because it feels right, a person who uses critical thinking subjects all available options to scrutiny and skepticism. Using the tools at their disposal, they’ll eliminate everything but the most useful and reliable information. There are many different ways of approaching critical thinking, but here’s one five-step process that may help you solve any number of problems.

One: formulate your question. In other words, know what you’re looking for. This isn’t always as straightforward as it sounds. For example, if you’re deciding whether to try out the newest diet craze, your reasons for doing so may be obscured by other factors, like claims that you’ll see results in just two weeks. But if you approach the situation with a clear view of what you’re actually trying to accomplish by dieting, whether that’s weight loss, better nutrition, or having more energy, that’ll equip you to sift through this information critically, find what you’re looking for, and decide whether the new fad really suits your needs.

Two: gather your information. There’s lots of it out there, so having a clear idea of your question will help you determine what’s relevant. If you’re trying to decide on a diet to improve your nutrition, you may ask an expert for their advice, or seek other people’s testimonies. Information gathering helps you weigh different options, moving you closer to a decision that meets your goal.

Three: apply the information, something you do by asking critical questions. Facing a decision, ask yourself, “What concepts are at work?” “What assumptions exist?” “Is my interpretation of the information logically sound?” For example, in an email that promises you millions, you should consider, “What is shaping my approach to this situation?” “Do I assume the sender is telling the truth?” “Based on the evidence, is it logical to assume I’ll win any money?”

Four: consider the implications. Imagine it’s election time, and you’ve selected a political candidate based on their promise to make it cheaper for drivers to fill up on gas. At first glance, that seems great. But what about the long-term environmental effects? If gasoline use is less restricted by cost, this could also cause a huge surge in air pollution, an unintended consequence that’s important to think about.

Five: explore other points of view. Ask yourself why so many people are drawn to the policies of the opposing political candidate. Even if you disagree with everything that candidate says, exploring the full spectrum of viewpoints might explain why some policies that don’t seem valid to you appeal to others. This will allow you to explore alternatives, evaluate your own choices, and ultimately help you make more informed decisions.

This five-step process is just one tool, and it certainly won’t eradicate difficult decisions from our lives. But it can help us increase the number of positive choices we make. Critical thinking can give us the tools to sift through a sea of information and find what we’re looking for. And if enough of us use it, it has the power to make the world a more reasonable place.

Go Cheat Sheet

cmd

go version

go env

gopath

The Go path is used to resolve import statements.

GOPATH is a list of directories (like PATH). Run go help gopath for details.

The GOPATH environment variable lists places to look for Go code.

  • On Unix, the value is a colon-separated string.
  • On Windows, the value is a semicolon-separated string.

Spring

by William Blake

Sound the Flute!
Now it’s mute.
Birds delight
Day and Night.
Nightingale
In the dale
Lark in Sky
Merrily
Merrily Merrily to welcome in the Year

Little Boy
Full of joy.
Little Girl
Sweet and small,
Cock does crow
So do you.
Merry voice
Infant noise
Merrily Merrily to welcome in the Year

Little Lamb
Here I am,
Come and lick
My white neck.
Let me pull
Your soft Wool.
Let me kiss
Your soft face.
Merrily Merrily we welcome in the Year.


Spring (poem)

annus mirabilis

Despite the poem’s name, the year had been one of great tragedy, including the Great Fire of London. The title was perhaps meant to suggest that the events of the year could have been worse. The poem contains 1216 lines of verse, arranged in 304 quatrains.

The year of wonders, 1666.

by John Dryden

1
In thriving arts long time had Holland grown,
Crouching at home and cruel when abroad:
Scarce leaving us the means to claim our own;
Our King they courted, and our merchants awed.

2
Trade, which, like blood, should circularly flow,
Stopp’d in their channels, found its freedom lost:
Thither the wealth of all the world did go,
And seem’d but shipwreck’d on so base a coast.

3
For them alone the heavens had kindly heat;
In eastern quarries ripening precious dew:
For them the Idumæan balm did sweat,
And in hot Ceylon spicy forests grew.

4
The sun but seem’d the labourer of the year;
Each waxing moon supplied her watery store,
To swell those tides, which from the line did bear
Their brimful vessels to the Belgian shore.

5
Thus mighty in her ships, stood Carthage long,
And swept the riches of the world from far;
Yet stoop’d to Rome, less wealthy, but more strong:
And this may prove our second Punic war.

6
What peace can be, where both to one pretend?
(But they more diligent, and we more strong)
Or if a peace, it soon must have an end;
For they would grow too powerful, were it long.

7
Behold two nations, then, engaged so far
That each seven years the fit must shake each land:
Where France will side to weaken us by war,
Who only can his vast designs withstand.

8
See how he feeds the Iberian with delays,
To render us his timely friendship vain:
And while his secret soul on Flanders preys,
He rocks the cradle of the babe of Spain.

9
Such deep designs of empire does he lay
O’er them, whose cause he seems to take in hand;
And prudently would make them lords at sea,
To whom with ease he can give laws by land.

10
This saw our King; and long within his breast
His pensive counsels balanced to and fro:
He grieved the land he freed should be oppress’d,
And he less for it than usurpers do.

11
His generous mind the fair ideas drew
Of fame and honour, which in dangers lay;
Where wealth, like fruit on precipices, grew,
Not to be gather’d but by birds of prey.

12
The loss and gain each fatally were great;
And still his subjects call’d aloud for war;
But peaceful kings, o’er martial people set,
Each, other’s poise and counterbalance are.

13
He first survey’d the charge with careful eyes,
Which none but mighty monarchs could maintain;
Yet judged, like vapours that from limbecks rise,
It would in richer showers descend again.

14
At length resolved to assert the watery ball,
He in himself did whole Armadoes bring:
Him aged seamen might their master call,
And choose for general, were he not their king.

15
It seems as every ship their sovereign knows,
His awful summons they so soon obey;
So hear the scaly herd when Proteus blows,
And so to pasture follow through the sea.

16
To see this fleet upon the ocean move,
Angels drew wide the curtains of the skies;
And heaven, as if there wanted lights above,
For tapers made two glaring comets rise.

17
Whether they unctuous exhalations are,
Fired by the sun, or seeming so alone:
Or each some more remote and slippery star,
Which loses footing when to mortals shown.

18
Or one, that bright companion of the sun,
Whose glorious aspect seal’d our new-born king;
And now a round of greater years begun,
New influence from his walks of light did bring.

19
Victorious York did first with famed success,
To his known valour make the Dutch give place:
Thus Heaven our monarch’s fortune did confess,
Beginning conquest from his royal race.

20
But since it was decreed, auspicious King,
In Britain’s right that thou shouldst wed the main,
Heaven, as a gage, would cast some precious thing,
And therefore doom’d that Lawson should be slain.

21
Lawson amongst the foremost met his fate,
Whom sea-green Sirens from the rocks lament;
Thus as an offering for the Grecian state,
He first was kill’d who first to battle went.

22
Their chief blown up in air, not waves, expired,
To which his pride presumed to give the law:
The Dutch confess’d Heaven present, and retired,
And all was Britain the wide ocean saw.

23
To nearest ports their shatter’d ships repair,
Where by our dreadful cannon they lay awed:
So reverently men quit the open air,
When thunder speaks the angry gods abroad.

24
And now approach’d their fleet from India, fraught
With all the riches of the rising sun:
And precious sand from southern climates brought,
The fatal regions where the war begun.

25
Like hunted castors, conscious of their store,
Their waylaid wealth to Norway’s coasts they bring:
There first the north’s cold bosom spices bore,
And winter brooded on the eastern spring.

26
By the rich scent we found our perfumed prey,
Which, flank’d with rocks, did close in covert lie;
And round about their murdering cannon lay,
At once to threaten and invite the eye.

27
Fiercer than cannon, and than rocks more hard,
The English undertake the unequal war:
Seven ships alone, by which the port is barr’d,
Besiege the Indies, and all Denmark dare.

28
These fight like husbands, but like lovers those:
These fain would keep, and those more fain enjoy:
And to such height their frantic passion grows,
That what both love, both hazard to destroy.

29
Amidst whole heaps of spices lights a ball,
And now their odours arm’d against them fly:
Some preciously by shatter’d porcelain fall,
And some by aromatic splinters die.

30
And though by tempests of the prize bereft,
In Heaven’s inclemency some ease we find:
Our foes we vanquish’d by our valour left,
And only yielded to the seas and wind.

31
Nor wholly lost we so deserved a prey;
For storms repenting part of it restored:
Which, as a tribute from the Baltic sea,
The British ocean sent her mighty lord.

32
Go, mortals, now; and vex yourselves in vain
For wealth, which so uncertainly must come:
When what was brought so far, and with such pain,
Was only kept to lose it nearer home.

33
The son, who twice three months on th’ ocean tost,
Prepared to tell what he had pass’d before,
Now sees in English ships the Holland coast,
And parents’ arms in vain stretch’d from the shore.

34
This careful husband had been long away,
Whom his chaste wife and little children mourn;
Who on their fingers learn’d to tell the day
On which their father promised to return.

35
Such are the proud designs of human kind,
And so we suffer shipwreck every where!
Alas, what port can such a pilot find,
Who in the night of fate must blindly steer!

36
The undistinguish’d seeds of good and ill,
Heaven, in his bosom, from our knowledge hides:
And draws them in contempt of human skill,
Which oft for friends mistaken foes provides.

37
Let Munster’s prelate ever be accurst,
In whom we seek the German faith in vain:
Alas, that he should teach the English first,
That fraud and avarice in the Church could reign!

38
Happy, who never trust a stranger’s will,
Whose friendship’s in his interest understood!
Since money given but tempts him to be ill,
When power is too remote to make him good.

39
Till now, alone the mighty nations strove;
The rest, at gaze, without the lists did stand:
And threatening France, placed like a painted Jove,
Kept idle thunder in his lifted hand.

40
That eunuch guardian of rich Holland’s trade,
Who envies us what he wants power to enjoy;
Whose noiseful valour does no foe invade,
And weak assistance will his friends destroy.

41
Offended that we fought without his leave,
He takes this time his secret hate to show:
Which Charles does with a mind so calm receive,
As one that neither seeks nor shuns his foe.

42
With France, to aid the Dutch, the Danes unite:
France as their tyrant, Denmark as their slave,
But when with one three nations join to fight,
They silently confess that one more brave.

43
Lewis had chased the English from his shore;
But Charles the French as subjects does invite:
Would Heaven for each some Solomon restore,
Who, by their mercy, may decide their right!

44
Were subjects so but only by their choice,
And not from birth did forced dominion take,
Our prince alone would have the public voice;
And all his neighbours’ realms would deserts make.

45
He without fear a dangerous war pursues,
Which without rashness he began before:
As honour made him first the danger choose,
So still he makes it good on virtue’s score.

46
The doubled charge his subjects’ love supplies,
Who, in that bounty, to themselves are kind:
So glad Egyptians see their Nilus rise,
And in his plenty their abundance find.

47
With equal power he does two chiefs create,
Two such as each seem’d worthiest when alone;
Each able to sustain a nation’s fate,
Since both had found a greater in their own.

48
Both great in courage, conduct, and in fame,
Yet neither envious of the other’s praise;
Their duty, faith, and interest too the same,
Like mighty partners equally they raise.

49
The prince long time had courted fortune’s love,
But once possess’d, did absolutely reign:
Thus with their Amazons the heroes strove,
And conquer’d first those beauties they would gain.

50
The Duke beheld, like Scipio, with disdain,
That Carthage, which he ruin’d, rise once more;
And shook aloft the fasces of the main,
To fright those slaves with what they felt before.

51
Together to the watery camp they haste,
Whom matrons passing to their children show:
Infants’ first vows for them to heaven are cast,
And future people bless them as they go.

52
With them no riotous pomp, nor Asian train,
To infect a navy with their gaudy fears;
To make slow fights, and victories but vain:
But war severely like itself appears.

53
Diffusive of themselves, where’er they pass,
They make that warmth in others they expect;
Their valour works like bodies on a glass,
And does its image on their men project.

54
Our fleet divides, and straight the Dutch appear,
In number, and a famed commander, bold:
The narrow seas can scarce their navy bear,
Or crowded vessels can their soldiers hold.

55
The Duke, less numerous, but in courage more,
On wings of all the winds to combat flies:
His murdering guns a loud defiance roar,
And bloody crosses on his flag-staffs rise.

56
Both furl their sails, and strip them for the fight;
Their folded sheets dismiss the useless air:
The Elean plains could boast no nobler sight,
When struggling champions did their bodies bare.

57
Borne each by other in a distant line,
The sea-built forts in dreadful order move:
So vast the noise, as if not fleets did join,
But lands unfix’d, and floating nations strove.

58
Now pass’d, on either side they nimbly tack;
Both strive to intercept and guide the wind:
And, in its eye, more closely they come back,
To finish all the deaths they left behind.

59
On high-raised decks the haughty Belgians ride,
Beneath whose shade our humble frigates go:
Such port the elephant bears, and so defied
By the rhinoceros, her unequal foe.

60
And as the build, so different is the fight;
Their mounting shot is on our sails design’d:
Deep in their hulls our deadly bullets light,
And through the yielding planks a passage find.

61
Our dreaded admiral from far they threat,
Whose batter’d rigging their whole war receives:
All bare, like some old oak which tempests beat,
He stands, and sees below his scatter’d leaves.

62
Heroes of old, when wounded, shelter sought;
But he who meets all danger with disdain,
Even in their face his ship to anchor brought,
And steeple-high stood propt upon the main.

63
At this excess of courage, all amazed,
The foremost of his foes awhile withdraw:
With such respect in enter’d Rome they gazed,
Who on high chairs the god-like fathers saw.

64
And now, as where Patroclus’ body lay,
Here Trojan chiefs advanced, and there the Greek
Ours o’er the Duke their pious wings display,
And theirs the noblest spoils of Britain seek.

65
Meantime his busy mariners he hastes,
His shatter’d sails with rigging to restore;
And willing pines ascend his broken masts,
Whose lofty heads rise higher than before.

66
Straight to the Dutch he turns his dreadful prow,
More fierce the important quarrel to decide:
Like swans, in long array his vessels show,
Whose crests advancing do the waves divide.

67
They charge, recharge, and all along the sea
They drive, and squander the huge Belgian fleet;
Berkeley[41] alone, who nearest danger lay,
Did a like fate with lost Creusa meet.

68
The night comes on, we eager to pursue
The combat still, and they ashamed to leave:
Till the last streaks of dying day withdrew,
And doubtful moonlight did our rage deceive.

69
In the English fleet each ship resounds with joy,
And loud applause of their great leader’s fame:
In fiery dreams the Dutch they still destroy,
And, slumbering, smile at the imagined flame.

70
Not so the Holland fleet, who, tired and done,
Stretch’d on their decks like weary oxen lie;
Faint sweats all down their mighty members run;
Vast bulks which little souls but ill supply.

71
In dreams they fearful precipices tread:
Or, shipwreck’d, labour to some distant shore:
Or in dark churches walk among the dead;
They wake with horror, and dare sleep no more.

72
The morn they look on with unwilling eyes,
Till from their main-top joyful news they hear
Of ships, which by their mould bring new supplies,
And in their colours Belgian lions bear.

73
Our watchful general had discern’d from far
This mighty succour, which made glad the foe:
He sigh’d, but, like a father of the war,
His face spake hope, while deep his sorrows flow.

74
His wounded men he first sends off to shore,
Never till now unwilling to obey:
They, not their wounds, but want of strength deplore,
And think them happy who with him can stay.

75
Then to the rest, Rejoice, said he, to-day;
In you the fortune of Great Britain lies:
Among so brave a people, you are they
Whom Heaven has chose to fight for such a prize.

76
If number English courages could quell,
We should at first have shunn’d, not met, our foes,
Whose numerous sails the fearful only tell:
Courage from hearts and not from numbers grows.

77
He said, nor needed more to say: with haste
To their known stations cheerfully they go;
And all at once, disdaining to be last,
Solicit every gale to meet the foe.

78
Nor did the encouraged Belgians long delay,
But bold in others, not themselves, they stood:
So thick, our navy scarce could steer their way,
But seem’d to wander in a moving wood.

79
Our little fleet was now engaged so far,
That, like the sword-fish in the whale, they fought:
The combat only seem’d a civil war,
Till through their bowels we our passage wrought.

80
Never had valour, no not ours, before
Done aught like this upon the land or main,
Where not to be o’ercome was to do more
Than all the conquests former kings did gain.

81
The mighty ghosts of our great Harries rose,
And armed Edwards look’d with anxious eyes,
To see this fleet among unequal foes,
By which fate promised them their Charles should rise.

82
Meantime the Belgians tack upon our rear,
And raking chase-guns through our sterns they send:
Close by their fire ships, like jackals appear
Who on their lions for the prey attend.

83
Silent in smoke of cannon they come on:
Such vapours once did fiery Cacus hide:
In these the height of pleased revenge is shown,
Who burn contented by another’s side.

84
Sometimes from fighting squadrons of each fleet,
Deceived themselves, or to preserve some friend,
Two grappling Ætnas on the ocean meet,
And English fires with Belgian flames contend.

85
Now at each tack our little fleet grows less;
And like maim’d fowl, swim lagging on the main:
Their greater loss their numbers scarce confess,
While they lose cheaper than the English gain.

86
Have you not seen, when, whistled from the fist,
Some falcon stoops at what her eye design’d,
And, with her eagerness the quarry miss’d,
Straight flies at check, and clips it down the wind.

87
The dastard crow that to the wood made wing,
And sees the groves no shelter can afford,
With her loud caws her craven kind does bring,
Who, safe in numbers, cuff the noble bird.

88
Among the Dutch thus Albemarle did fare:
He could not conquer, and disdain’d to fly;
Past hope of safety, ‘twas his latest care,
Like falling Cæsar, decently to die.

89
Yet pity did his manly spirit move,
To see those perish who so well had fought;
And generously with his despair he strove,
Resolved to live till he their safety wrought.

90
Let other muses write his prosperous fate,
Of conquer’d nations tell, and kings restored;
But mine shall sing of his eclipsed estate,
Which, like the sun’s, more wonders does afford.

91
He drew his mighty frigates all before,
On which the foe his fruitless force employs:
His weak ones deep into his rear he bore
Remote from guns, as sick men from the noise.

92
His fiery cannon did their passage guide,
And following smoke obscured them from the foe:
Thus Israel safe from the Egyptian’s pride,
By flaming pillars, and by clouds did go.

93
Elsewhere the Belgian force we did defeat,
But here our courages did theirs subdue:
So Xenophon once led that famed retreat,
Which first the Asian empire overthrew.

94
The foe approach’d; and one for his bold sin
Was sunk; as he that touch’d the ark was slain:
The wild waves master’d him and suck’d him in,
And smiling eddies dimpled on the main.

95
This seen, the rest at awful distance stood:
As if they had been there as servants set
To stay, or to go on, as he thought good,
And not pursue, but wait on his retreat.

96
So Lybian huntsmen, on some sandy plain,
From shady coverts roused, the lion chase:
The kingly beast roars out with loud disdain,
And slowly moves, unknowing to give place.

97
But if some one approach to dare his force,
He swings his tail, and swiftly turns him round;
With one paw seizes on his trembling horse,
And with the other tears him to the ground.

98
Amidst these toils succeeds the balmy night;
Now hissing waters the quench’d guns restore;
And weary waves, withdrawing from the fight,
Lie lull’d and panting on the silent shore:

99
The moon shone clear on the becalmed flood,
Where, while her beams like glittering silver play,
Upon the deck our careful general stood,
And deeply mused on the succeeding day.

100
That happy sun, said he, will rise again,
Who twice victorious did our navy see:
And I alone must view him rise in vain,
Without one ray of all his star for me.

101
Yet like an English general will I die,
And all the ocean make my spacious grave:
Women and cowards on the land may lie;
The sea’s a tomb that’s proper for the brave.

102
Restless he pass’d the remnant of the night,
Till the fresh air proclaimed the morning nigh:
And burning ships, the martyrs of the fight,
With paler fires beheld the eastern sky.

103
But now, his stores of ammunition spent,
His naked valour is his only guard;
Rare thunders are from his dumb cannon sent,
And solitary guns are scarcely heard.

104
Thus far had fortune power, here forced to stay,
Nor longer durst with virtue be at strife:
This as a ransom Albemarle did pay,
For all the glories of so great a life.

105
For now brave Rupert from afar appears,
Whose waving streamers the glad general knows:
With full spread sails his eager navy steers,
And every ship in swift proportion grows.

106
The anxious prince had heard the cannon long,
And from that length of time dire omens drew
Of English overmatch’d, and Dutch too strong,
Who never fought three days, but to pursue.

107
Then, as an eagle, who, with pious care
Was beating widely on the wing for prey,
To her now silent eyrie does repair,
And finds her callow infants forced away:

108
Stung with her love, she stoops upon the plain,
The broken air loud whistling as she flies:
She stops and listens, and shoots forth again,
And guides her pinions by her young ones’ cries.

109
With such kind passion hastes the prince to fight,
And spreads his flying canvas to the sound;
Him, whom no danger, were he there, could fright,
Now absent every little noise can wound.

110
As in a drought the thirsty creatures cry,
And gape upon the gather’d clouds for rain,
And first the martlet meets it in the sky,
And with wet wings joys all the feather’d train.

111
With such glad hearts did our despairing men
Salute the appearance of the prince’s fleet;
And each ambitiously would claim the ken,
That with first eyes did distant safety meet.

112
The Dutch, who came like greedy hinds before,
To reap the harvest their ripe ears did yield,
Now look like those, when rolling thunders roar,
And sheets of lightning blast the standing field.

113
Full in the prince’s passage, hills of sand,
And dangerous flats in secret ambush lay;
Where the false tides skim o’er the cover’d land,
And seamen with dissembled depths betray.

114
The wily Dutch, who, like fallen angels, fear’d
This new Messiah’s coming, there did wait,
And round the verge their braving vessels steer’d,
To tempt his courage with so fair a bait.

115
But he, unmoved, contemns their idle threat,
Secure of fame whene’er he please to fight:
His cold experience tempers all his heat,
And inbred worth doth boasting valour slight.

116
Heroic virtue did his actions guide,
And he the substance, not the appearance chose
To rescue one such friend he took more pride,
Than to destroy whole thousands of such foes.

117
But when approach’d, in strict embraces bound,
Rupert and Albemarle together grow;
He joys to have his friend in safety found,
Which he to none but to that friend would owe.

118
The cheerful soldiers, with new stores supplied,
Now long to execute their spleenful will;
And, in revenge for those three days they tried,
Wish one, like Joshua’s, when the sun stood still.

119
Thus reinforced, against the adverse fleet,
Still doubling ours, brave Rupert leads the way:
With the first blushes of the morn they meet,
And bring night back upon the new-born day.

120
His presence soon blows up the kindling fight,
And his loud guns speak thick like angry men:
It seem’d as slaughter had been breathed all night,
And Death new pointed his dull dart again.

121
The Dutch too well his mighty conduct knew,
And matchless courage since the former fight;
Whose navy like a stiff-stretch’d cord did show,
Till he bore in and bent them into flight.

122
The wind he shares, while half their fleet offends
His open side, and high above him shows:
Upon the rest at pleasure he descends,
And doubly harm’d he double harms bestows.

123
Behind the general mends his weary pace,
And sullenly to his revenge he sails:
So glides some trodden serpent on the grass,
And long behind his wounded volume trails.

124
The increasing sound is borne to either shore,
And for their stakes the throwing nations fear:
Their passions double with the cannons’ roar,
And with warm wishes each man combats there.

125
Plied thick and close as when the fight begun,
Their huge unwieldy navy wastes away;
So sicken waning moons too near the sun,
And blunt their crescents on the edge of day.

126
And now reduced on equal terms to fight,
Their ships like wasted patrimonies show;
Where the thin scattering trees admit the light,
And shun each other’s shadows as they grow.

127
The warlike prince had sever’d from the rest
Two giant ships, the pride of all the main;
Which with his one so vigorously he prest,
And flew so home they could not rise again.

128
Already batter’d, by his lee they lay,
In rain upon the passing winds they call:
The passing winds through their torn canvas play,
And flagging sails on heartless sailors fall.

129
Their open’d sides receive a gloomy light,
Dreadful as day let into shades below:
Without, grim Death rides barefaced in their sight,
And urges entering billows as they flow.

130
When one dire shot, the last they could supply,
Close by the board the prince’s mainmast bore:
All three now helpless by each other lie,
And this offends not, and those fear no more.

131
So have I seen some fearful hare maintain
A course, till tired before the dog she lay:
Who, stretch’d behind her, pants upon the plain,
Past power to kill, as she to get away.

132
With his loll’d tongue he faintly licks his prey;
His warm breath blows her flix[44] up as she lies;
She trembling creeps upon the ground away,
And looks back to him with beseeching eyes.

133
The prince unjustly does his stars accuse,
Which hinder’d him to push his fortune on;
For what they to his courage did refuse,
By mortal valour never must be done.

134
This lucky hour the wise Batavian takes,
And warns his tatter’d fleet to follow home;
Proud to have so got off with equal stakes,
Where ‘twas a triumph not to be o’ercome.

135
The general’s force, as kept alive by fight,
Now not opposed, no longer can pursue:
Lasting till heaven had done his courage right;
When he had conquer’d he his weakness knew.

136
He casts a frown on the departing foe,
And sighs to see him quit the watery field:
His stern fix’d eyes no satisfaction show,
For all the glories which the fight did yield.

137
Though, as when fiends did miracles avow,
He stands confess’d e’en by the boastful Dutch:
He only does his conquest disavow,
And thinks too little what they found too much.

138
Return’d, he with the fleet resolved to stay;
No tender thoughts of home his heart divide;
Domestic joys and cares he puts away;
For realms are households which the great must guide.

139
As those who unripe veins in mines explore,
On the rich bed again the warm turf lay,
Till time digests the yet imperfect ore,
And know it will be gold another day:

140
So looks our monarch on this early fight,
Th’ essay and rudiments of great success;
Which all-maturing time must bring to light,
While he, like Heaven, does each day’s labour bless.

141
Heaven ended not the first or second day,
Yet each was perfect to the work design’d;
God and king’s work, when they their work survey,
A passive aptness in all subjects find.

142
In burden’d vessels first, with speedy care,
His plenteous stores do seasoned timber send;
Thither the brawny carpenters repair,
And as the surgeons of maim’d ships attend.

143
With cord and canvas from rich Hamburgh sent,
His navy’s molted wings he imps once more:
Tall Norway fir, their masts in battle spent,
And English oak, sprung leaks and planks restore.

144
All hands employ’d, the royal work grows warm:
Like labouring bees on a long summer’s day,
Some sound the trumpet for the rest to swarm.
And some on bells of tasted lilies play.

145
With gluey wax some new foundations lay
Of virgin-combs, which from the roof are hung:
Some arm’d, within doors upon duty stay,
Or tend the sick, or educate the young.

146
So here some pick out bullets from the sides,
Some drive old oakum through each seam and rift:
Their left hand does the calking-iron guide,
The rattling mallet with the right they lift.

147
With boiling pitch another near at hand,
From friendly Sweden brought, the seams instops:
Which well paid o’er, the salt sea waves withstand,
And shakes them from the rising beak in drops.

148
Some the gall’d ropes with dauby marline bind,
Or sear-cloth masts with strong tarpaulin coats:
To try new shrouds one mounts into the wind,
And one below their ease or stiffness notes.

149
Our careful monarch stands in person by,
His new-cast cannons’ firmness to explore:
The strength of big-corn’d powder loves to try,
And ball and cartridge sorts for every bore.

150
Each day brings fresh supplies of arms and men,
And ships which all last winter were abroad;
And such as fitted since the fight had been,
Or, new from stocks, were fallen into the road.

151
The goodly London in her gallant trim
(The Phoenix daughter of the vanish’d old).
Like a rich bride does to the ocean swim,
And on her shadow rides in floating gold.

152
Her flag aloft spread ruffling to the wind,
And sanguine streamers seem the flood to fire;
The weaver, charm’d with what his loom design’d,
Goes on to sea, and knows not to retire.

153
With roomy decks, her guns of mighty strength,
Whose low-laid mouths each mounting billow laves;
Deep in her draught, and warlike in her length,
She seems a sea-wasp flying on the waves.

154
This martial present, piously design’d,
The loyal city give their best-loved King:
And with a bounty ample as the wind,
Built, fitted, and maintain’d, to aid him bring.

155
By viewing Nature, Nature’s handmaid, Art,
Makes mighty things from small beginnings grow:
Thus fishes first to shipping did impart,
Their tail the rudder, and their head the prow.

156
Some log perhaps upon the waters swam,
An useless drift, which, rudely cut within,
And, hollow’d, first a floating trough became,
And cross some rivulet passage did begin.

157
In shipping such as this, the Irish kern,
And untaught Indian, on the stream did glide:
Ere sharp-keel’d boats to stem the flood did learn,
Or fin-like oars did spread from either side.

158
Add but a sail, and Saturn so appear’d,
When from lost empire he to exile went,
And with the golden age to Tiber steer’d,
Where coin and commerce first he did invent.

159
Rude as their ships was navigation then;
No useful compass or meridian known;
Coasting, they kept the land within their ken,
And knew no North but when the Pole-star shone.

160
Of all who since have used the open sea,
Than the bold English none more fame have won:
Beyond the year, and out of heaven’s high way,
They make discoveries where they see no sun.

161
But what so long in vain, and yet unknown,
By poor mankind’s benighted wit is sought,
Shall in this age to Britain first be shown,
And hence be to admiring nations taught.

162
The ebbs of tides and their mysterious flow,
We, as art’s elements, shall understand,
And as by line upon the ocean go,
Whose paths shall be familiar as the land.

163
Instructed ships shall sail to quick commerce,
By which remotest regions are allied;
Which makes one city of the universe,
Where some may gain, and all may be supplied.

164
Then we upon our globe’s last verge shall go,
And view the ocean leaning on the sky:
From thence our rolling neighbours we shall know,
And on the lunar world securely pry.

165
This I foretell from your auspicious care,
Who great in search of God and nature grow;
Who best your wise Creator’s praise declare,
Since best to praise his works is best to know.

166
O truly royal! who behold the law
And rule of beings in your Maker’s mind:
And thence, like limbecks, rich ideas draw,
To fit the levell’d use of human-kind.

197
But first the toils of war we must endure,
And from the injurious Dutch redeem the seas.
War makes the valiant of his right secure,
And gives up fraud to be chastised with ease.

168
Already were the Belgians on our coast,
Whose fleet more mighty every day became
By late success, which they did falsely boast,
And now by first appearing seem’d to claim.

169
Designing, subtle, diligent, and close,
They knew to manage war with wise delay:
Yet all those arts their vanity did cross,
And by their pride their prudence did betray.

170
Nor stay’d the English long; but, well supplied,
Appear as numerous as the insulting foe:
The combat now by courage must be tried,
And the success the braver nation show.

171
There was the Plymouth squadron now come in,
Which in the Straits last winter was abroad;
Which twice on Biscay’s working bay had been,
And on the midland sea the French had awed.

172
Old expert Allen, loyal all along,
Famed for his action on the Smyrna fleet:
And Holmes, whose name shall live in epic song,
While music numbers, or while verse has feet.

173
Holmes, the Achates of the general’s fight;
Who first bewitch’d our eyes with Guinea gold;
As once old Cato in the Roman sight
The tempting fruits of Afric did unfold.

174
With him went Spragge, as bountiful as brave,
Whom his high courage to command had brought:
Harman, who did the twice-fired Harry save,
And in his burning ship undaunted fought.

175
Young Hollis, on a Muse by Mars begot,
Born, Cæsar-like, to write and act great deeds:
Impatient to revenge his fatal shot,
His right hand doubly to his left succeeds.

176
Thousands were there in darker fame that dwell,
Whose deeds some nobler poem shall adorn:
And, though to me unknown, they sure fought well
Whom Rupert led, and who were British born.

177
Of every size an hundred fighting sail:
So vast the navy now at anchor rides,
That underneath it the press’d waters fail,
And with its weight it shoulders off the tides.

178
Now anchors weigh’d, the seamen shout so shrill,
That heaven and earth and the wide ocean rings:
A breeze from westward waits their sails to fill,
And rests in those high beds his downy wings.

179
The wary Dutch this gathering storm foresaw,
And durst not bide it on the English coast:
Behind their treacherous shallows they withdraw,
And there lay snares to catch the British host.

180
So the false spider, when her nets are spread,
Deep ambush’d in her silent den does lie:
And feels far off the trembling of her thread,
Whose filmy cord should bind the struggling fly.

181
Then if at last she find him fast beset,
She issues forth and runs along her loom:
She joys to touch the captive in her net,
And drags the little wretch in triumph home.

182
The Belgians hoped, that, with disorder’d haste,
Our deep-cut keels upon the sands might run:
Or, if with caution leisurely were past,
Their numerous gross might charge us one by one.

183
But with a fore-wind pushing them above,
And swelling tide that heaved them from below,
O’er the blind flats our warlike squadrons move,
And with spread sails to welcome battle go.

184
It seem’d as there the British Neptune stood,
With all his hosts of waters at command.
Beneath them to submit the officious flood;
And with his trident shoved them off the sand.

185
To the pale foes they suddenly draw near,
And summon them to unexpected fight:
They start like murderers when ghosts appear,
And draw their curtains in the dead of night.

186
Now van to van the foremost squadrons meet,
The midmost battles hastening up behind,
Who view far off the storm of falling sleet,
And hear their thunder rattling in the wind.

187
At length the adverse admirals appear;
The two bold champions of each country’s right:
Their eyes describe the lists as they come near,
And draw the lines of death before they fight.

188
The distance judged for shot of every size,
The linstocks touch, the ponderous ball expires:
The vigorous seaman every port-hole plies,
And adds his heart to every gun he fires!

189
Fierce was the fight on the proud Belgians’ side,
For honour, which they seldom sought before!
But now they by their own vain boasts were tied,
And forced at least in show to prize it more.

190
But sharp remembrance on the English part,
And shame of being match’d by such a foe,
Rouse conscious virtue up in every heart,
And seeming to be stronger makes them so.

191
Nor long the Belgians could that fleet sustain,
Which did two generals’ fates, and Cæsar’s bear:
Each several ship a victory did gain,
As Rupert or as Albemarle were there.

192
Their batter’d admiral too soon withdrew,
Unthank’d by ours for his unfinish’d fight;
But he the minds of his Dutch masters knew,
Who call’d that Providence which we call’d flight.

193
Never did men more joyfully obey,
Or sooner understood the sign to fly:
With such alacrity they bore away,
As if to praise them all the States stood by.

194
O famous leader of the Belgian fleet,
Thy monument inscribed such praise shall wear,
As Varro, timely flying, once did meet,
Because he did not of his Rome despair.

195
Behold that navy, which a while before,
Provoked the tardy English close to fight,
Now draw their beaten vessels close to shore,
As larks lie, dared, to shun the hobby’s flight.

196
Whoe’er would English monuments survey,
In other records may our courage know:
But let them hide the story of this day,
Whose fame was blemish’d by too base a foe.

197
Or if too busily they will inquire
Into a victory which we disdain;
Then let them know the Belgians did retire
Before the patron saint of injured Spain.

198
Repenting England this revengeful day
To Philip’s manes did an offering bring:
England, which first by leading them astray,
Hatch’d up rebellion to destroy her King.

199
Our fathers bent their baneful industry,
To check a, monarchy that slowly grew;
But did not France or Holland’s fate foresee,
Whose rising power to swift dominion flew.

200
In fortune’s empire blindly thus we go,
And wander after pathless destiny;
Whose dark resorts since prudence cannot know,
In vain it would provide for what shall be.

201
But whate’er English to the bless’d shall go,
And the fourth Harry or first Orange meet;
Find him disowning of a Bourbon foe,
And him detesting a Batavian fleet.

202
Now on their coasts our conquering navy rides,
Waylays their merchants, and their land besets:
Each day new wealth without their care provides;
They lie asleep with prizes in their nets.

203
So, close behind some promontory lie
The huge leviathans to attend their prey;
And give no chase, but swallow in the fry,
Which through their gaping jaws mistake the way.

204
Nor was this all: in ports and roads remote,
Destructive fires among whole fleets we send:
Triumphant flames upon the water float,
And out-bound ships at home their voyage end.

205
Those various squadrons variously design’d,
Each vessel freighted with a several load,
Each squadron waiting for a several wind,
All find but one, to burn them in the road.

206
Some bound for Guinea, golden sand to find,
Bore all the gauds the simple natives wear;
Some for the pride of Turkish courts design’d,
For folded turbans finest Holland bear.

207
Some English wool, vex’d in a Belgian loom,
And into cloth of spungy softness made,
Did into France, or colder Denmark, doom,
To ruin with worse ware our staple trade.

208
Our greedy seamen rummage every hold,
Smile on the booty of each wealthier chest;
And, as the priests who with their gods make bold,
Take what they like, and sacrifice the rest.

209
But ah! how insincere are all our joys!
Which, sent from heaven, like lightning make no stay;
Their palling taste the journey’s length destroys,
Or grief, sent post, o’ertakes them on the way.

210
Swell’d with our late successes on the foe,
Which France and Holland wanted power to cross,
We urge an unseen fate to lay us low,
And feed their envious eyes with English loss.

211
Each element His dread command obeys,
Who makes or ruins with a smile or frown;
Who, as by one he did our nation raise,
So now he with another pulls us down.

212
Yet London, empress of the northern clime,
By an high fate thou greatly didst expire;
Great as the world’s, which, at the death of time
Must fall, and rise a nobler frame by fire!

213
As when some dire usurper Heaven provides,
To scourge his country with a lawless sway;
His birth perhaps some petty village hides,
And sets his cradle out of fortune’s way.

214
Till fully ripe his swelling fate breaks out,
And hurries him to mighty mischiefs on:
His prince, surprised at first, no ill could doubt,
And wants the power to meet it when ‘tis known.

215
Such was the rise of this prodigious fire,
Which, in mean buildings first obscurely bred,
From thence did soon to open streets aspire,
And straight to palaces and temples spread.

216
The diligence of trades and noiseful gain,
And luxury more late, asleep were laid:
All was the night’s; and in her silent reign
No sound the rest of nature did invade.

217
In this deep quiet, from what source unknown,
Those seeds of fire their fatal birth disclose;
And first few scattering sparks about were blown,
Big with the flames that to our ruin rose.

218
Then in some close-pent room it crept along,
And, smouldering as it went, in silence fed;
Till the infant monster, with devouring strong,
Walk’d boldly upright with exalted head.

219
Now like some rich or mighty murderer,
Too great for prison, which he breaks with gold;
Who fresher for new mischiefs does appear,
And dares the world to tax him with the old:

220
So ‘scapes the insulting fire his narrow jail,
And makes small outlets into open air:
There the fierce winds his tender force assail,
And beat him downward to his first repair.

221
The winds, like crafty courtesans, withheld
His flames from burning, but to blow them more:
And every fresh attempt he is repell’d
With faint denials weaker than before.

222
And now no longer letted of his prey,
He leaps up at it with enraged desire:
O’erlooks the neighbours with a wide survey,
And nods at every house his threatening fire.

223
The ghosts of traitors from the bridge descend,
With bold fanatic spectres to rejoice:
About the fire into a dance they bend,
And sing their sabbath notes with feeble voice.

224
Our guardian angel saw them where they sate
Above the palace of our slumbering king:
He sigh’d, abandoning his charge to fate,
And, drooping, oft look’d back upon the wing.

225
At length the crackling noise and dreadful blaze
Call’d up some waking lover to the sight;
And long it was ere he the rest could raise,
Whose heavy eyelids yet were full of night.

226
The next to danger, hot pursued by fate,
Half-clothed, half-naked, hastily retire:
And frighted mothers strike their breasts too late,
For helpless infants left amidst the fire.

227
Their cries soon waken all the dwellers near;
Now murmuring noises rise in every street:
The more remote run stumbling with their fear,
And in the dark men jostle as they meet.

228
So weary bees in little cells repose;
But if night-robbers lift the well-stored hive,
An humming through their waxen city grows,
And out upon each other’s wings they drive.

229
Now streets grow throng’d and busy as by day:
Some run for buckets to the hallow’d quire:
Some cut the pipes, and some the engines play;
And some more bold mount ladders to the fire.

230
In vain: for from the east a Belgian wind
His hostile breath through the dry rafters sent;
The flames impell’d soon left their foes behind,
And forward with a wanton fury went.

231
A quay of fire ran all along the shore,
And lighten’d all the river with a blaze:
The waken’d tides began again to roar,
And wondering fish in shining waters gaze.

232
Old father Thames raised up his reverend head,
But fear’d the fate of Simois would return:
Deep in his ooze he sought his sedgy bed,
And shrunk his waters back into his urn.

233
The fire, meantime, walks in a broader gross;
To either hand his wings he opens wide:
He wades the streets, and straight he reaches cross,
And plays his longing flames on the other side.

234
At first they warm, then scorch, and then they take;
Now with long necks from side to side they feed:
At length, grown strong, their mother-fire forsake,
And a new colony of flames succeed.

235
To every nobler portion of the town
The curling billows roll their restless tide:
In parties now they straggle up and down,
As armies, unopposed, for prey divide.

236
One mighty squadron with a side-wind sped,
Through narrow lanes his cumber’d fire does haste,
By powerful charms of gold and silver led,
The Lombard bankers and the ‘Change to waste.

237
Another backward to the Tower would go,
And slowly eats his way against the wind:
But the main body of the marching foe
Against the imperial palace is design’d.

238
Now day appears, and with the day the King,
Whose early care had robb’d him of his rest:
Far off the cracks of falling houses ring,
And shrieks of subjects pierce his tender breast.

239
Near as he draws, thick harbingers of smoke
With gloomy pillars cover all the place;
Whose little intervals of night are broke
By sparks, that drive against his sacred face.

240
More than his guards, his sorrows made him known,
And pious tears, which down his cheeks did shower;
The wretched in his grief forgot their own;
So much the pity of a king has power.

241
He wept the flames of what he loved so well,
And what so well had merited his love:
For never prince in grace did more excel,
Or royal city more in duty strove.

242
Nor with an idle care did he behold:
Subjects may grieve, but monarchs must redress;
He cheers the fearful, and commends the bold,
And makes despairers hope for good success.

243
Himself directs what first is to be done,
And orders all the succours which they bring,
The helpful and the good about him run,
And form an army worthy such a king.

244
He sees the dire contagion spread so fast,
That, where it seizes, all relief is vain:
And therefore must unwillingly lay waste
That country, which would else the foe maintain.

245
The powder blows up all before the fire:
The amazèd flames stand gather’d on a heap;
And from the precipice’s brink retire,
Afraid to venture on so large a leap.

246
Thus fighting fires a while themselves consume,
But straight, like Turks forced on to win or die,
They first lay tender bridges of their fume,
And o’er the breach in unctuous vapours fly.

247
Part stay for passage, till a gust of wind
Ships o’er their forces in a shining sheet:
Part creeping under ground their journey blind,
And climbing from below their fellows meet.

248
Thus to some desert plain, or old woodside,
Dire night-hags come from far to dance their round;
And o’er broad rivers on their fiends they ride,
Or sweep in clouds above the blasted ground.

249
No help avails: for hydra-like, the fire
Lifts up his hundred heads to aim his way;
And scarce the wealthy can one half retire,
Before he rushes in to share the prey.

250
The rich grow suppliant, and the poor grow proud;
Those offer mighty gain, and these ask more:
So void of pity is the ignoble crowd,
When others’ ruin may increase their store.

251
As those who live by shores with joy behold
Some wealthy vessel split or stranded nigh;
And from the rocks leap down for shipwreck’d gold,
And seek the tempests which the others fly:

252
So these but wait the owners’ last despair,
And what’s permitted to the flames invade;
Even from their jaws they hungry morsels tear,
And on their backs the spoils of Vulcan lade.

253
The days were all in this lost labour spent;
And when the weary king gave place to night,
His beams he to his royal brother lent,
And so shone still in his reflective light.

254
Night came, but without darkness or repose,–
A dismal picture of the general doom,
Where souls, distracted when the trumpet blows,
And half unready, with their bodies come.

255
Those who have homes, when home they do repair,
To a last lodging call their wandering friends:
Their short uneasy sleeps are broke with care,
To look how near their own destruction tends.

256
Those who have none, sit round where once it was,
And with full eyes each wonted room require;
Haunting the yet warm ashes of the place,
As murder’d men walk where they did expire.

257
Some stir up coals, and watch the vestal fire,
Others in vain from sight of ruin run;
And, while through burning labyrinths they retire,
With loathing eyes repeat what they would shun.

258
The most in fields like herded beasts lie down,
To dews obnoxious on the grassy floor;
And while their babes in sleep their sorrows drown,
Sad parents watch the remnants of their store.

259
While by the motion of the flames they guess
What streets are burning now, and what are near;
An infant waking to the paps would press,
And meets, instead of milk, a falling tear.

260
No thought can ease them but their sovereign’s care,
Whose praise the afflicted as their comfort sing:
Even those whom want might drive to just despair,
Think life a blessing under such a king.

261
Meantime he sadly suffers in their grief,
Out-weeps an hermit, and out-prays a saint:
All the long night he studies their relief,
How they may be supplied, and he may want.

262
O God, said he, thou patron of my days,
Guide of my youth in exile and distress!
Who me, unfriended, brought’st by wondrous ways,
The kingdom of my fathers to possess:

263
Be thou my judge, with what unwearied care
I since have labour’d for my people’s good;
To bind the bruises of a civil war,
And stop the issues of their wasting blood.

264
Thou who hast taught me to forgive the ill,
And recompense, as friends, the good misled;
If mercy be a precept of thy will,
Return that mercy on thy servant’s head.

265
Or if my heedless youth has stepp’d astray,
Too soon forgetful of thy gracious hand;
On me alone thy just displeasure lay,
But take thy judgments from this mourning land.

266
We all have sinn’d, and thou hast laid us low,
As humble earth from whence at first we came:
Like flying shades before the clouds we show,
And shrink like parchment in consuming flame.

267
O let it be enough what thou hast done;
When spotted Deaths ran arm’d through every street,
With poison’d darts which not the good could shun,
The speedy could out-fly, or valiant meet.

268
The living few, and frequent funerals then,
Proclaim’d thy wrath on this forsaken place;
And now those few who are return’d again,
Thy searching judgments to their dwellings trace.

269
O pass not, Lord, an absolute decree,
Or bind thy sentence unconditional!
But in thy sentence our remorse foresee,
And in that foresight this thy doom recall.

270
Thy threatenings, Lord, as thine thou mayst revoke:
But if immutable and fix’d they stand,
Continue still thyself to give the stroke,
And let not foreign foes oppress thy land.

271
The Eternal heard, and from the heavenly quire
Chose out the cherub with the flaming sword;
And bade him swiftly drive the approaching fire
From where our naval magazines were stored.

272
The blessed minister his wings display’d,
And like a shooting star he cleft the night:
He charged the flames, and those that disobey’d
He lash’d to duty with his sword of light.

273
The fugitive flames chastised went forth to prey
On pious structures, by our fathers rear’d;
By which to heaven they did affect the way,
Ere faith in churchmen without works was heard.

274
The wanting orphans saw, with watery eyes,
Their founder’s charity in dust laid low;
And sent to God their ever-answered cries,
For He protects the poor, who made them so.

275
Nor could thy fabric, Paul’s, defend thee long,
Though thou wert sacred to thy Maker’s praise:
Though made immortal by a poet’s song;
And poets’ songs the Theban walls could raise.

276
The daring flames peep’d in, and saw from far
The awful beauties of the sacred quire:
But since it was profaned by civil war,
Heaven thought it fit to have it purged by fire.

277
Now down the narrow streets it swiftly came,
And widely opening did on both sides prey:
This benefit we sadly owe the flame,
If only ruin must enlarge our way.

278
And now four days the sun had seen our woes:
Four nights the moon beheld the incessant fire:
It seem’d as if the stars more sickly rose,
And farther from the feverish north retire.

279
In th’ empyrean heaven, the bless’d abode,
The Thrones and the Dominions prostrate lie,
Not daring to behold their angry God;
And a hush’d silence damps the tuneful sky.

280
At length the Almighty cast a pitying eye,
And mercy softly touch’d his melting breast:
He saw the town’s one half in rubbish lie,
And eager flames drive on to storm the rest.

281
An hollow crystal pyramid he takes,
In firmamental waters dipt above;
Of it a broad extinguisher he makes,
And hoods the flames that to their quarry drove.

282
The vanquish’d fires withdraw from every place,
Or, full with feeding, sink into a sleep:
Each household genius shows again his face,
And from the hearths the little Lares creep.

283
Our King this more than natural change beholds;
With sober joy his heart and eyes abound:
To the All-good his lifted hands he folds,
And thanks him low on his redeemed ground.

284
As when sharp frosts had long constrain’d the earth,
A kindly thaw unlocks it with mild rain;
And first the tender blade peeps up to birth,
And straight the green fields laugh with promised grain:

285
By such degrees the spreading gladness grew
In every heart which fear had froze before:
The standing streets with so much joy they view,
That with less grief the perish’d they deplore.

286
The father of the people open’d wide
His stores, and all the poor with plenty fed:
Thus God’s anointed God’s own place supplied,
And fill’d the empty with his daily bread.

287
This royal bounty brought its own reward,
And in their minds so deep did print the sense,
That if their ruins sadly they regard,
‘Tis but with fear the sight might drive him thence.

288
But so may he live long, that town to sway,
Which by his auspice they will nobler make,
As he will hatch their ashes by his stay,
And not their humble ruins now forsake.

289
They have not lost their loyalty by fire;
Nor is their courage or their wealth so low,
That from his wars they poorly would retire,
Or beg the pity of a vanquish’d foe.

290
Not with more constancy the Jews of old,
By Cyrus from rewarded exile sent,
Their royal city did in dust behold,
Or with more vigour to rebuild it went.

291
The utmost malice of their stars is past,
And two dire comets, which have scourged the town,
In their own plague and fire have breathed the last,
Or dimly in their sinking sockets frown.

292
Now frequent trines the happier lights among,
And high-raised Jove, from his dark prison freed,
Those weights took off that on his planet hung,
Will gloriously the new-laid work succeed.

293
Methinks already from this chemic flame,
I see a city of more precious mould:
Rich as the town which gives the Indies name,
With silver paved, and all divine with gold.

294
Already labouring with a mighty fate,
She shakes the rubbish from her mounting brow,
And seems to have renew’d her charter’s date,
Which Heaven will to the death of time allow.

295
More great than human now, and more august,
Now deified she from her fires does rise:
Her widening streets on new foundations trust,
And opening into larger parts she flies.

296
Before, she like some shepherdess did show,
Who sat to bathe her by a river’s side;
Not answering to her fame, but rude and low,
Nor taught the beauteous arts of modern pride.

297
Now, like a maiden queen, she will behold,
From her high turrets, hourly suitors come;
The East with incense, and the West with gold,
Will stand, like suppliants, to receive her doom!

298
The silver Thames, her own domestic flood,
Shall bear her vessels like a sweeping train;
And often wind, as of his mistress proud,
With longing eyes to meet her face again.

299
The wealthy Tagus, and the wealthier Rhine,
The glory of their towns no more shall boast;
And Seine, that would with Belgian rivers join,
Shall find her lustre stain’d, and traffic lost.

300
The venturous merchant who design’d more far,
And touches on our hospitable shore,
Charm’d with the splendour of this northern star,
Shall here unlade him, and depart no more.

301
Our powerful navy shall no longer meet,
The wealth of France or Holland to invade;
The beauty of this town without a fleet,
From all the world shall vindicate her trade.

302
And while this famed emporium we prepare,
The British ocean shall such triumphs boast,
That those, who now disdain our trade to share,
Shall rob like pirates on our wealthy coast.

303
Already we have conquer’d half the war,
And the less dangerous part is left behind:
Our trouble now is but to make them dare,
And not so great to vanquish as to find.

304
Thus to the Eastern wealth through storms we go,
But now, the Cape once doubled, fear no more;
A constant trade-wind will securely blow,
And gently lay us on the spicy shore.


Why COVID-19 is hitting us now -- and how to prepare for the next outbreak - Alanna Shaikh - TEDxSMU - Transcript

I want to lead here by talking a little bit about my credentials to bring this up with you, because, quite honestly, you really, really should not listen to any old person with an opinion about COVID-19.

(Laughter)

So I’ve been working in global health for about 20 years, and my specific technical specialty is in health systems and what happens when health systems experience severe shocks. I’ve also worked in global health journalism; I’ve written about global health and biosecurity for newspapers and web outlets, and I published a book a few years back about the major global health threats facing us as a planet. I have supported and led epidemiology efforts that range from evaluating Ebola treatment centers to looking at transmission of tuberculosis in health facilities and doing avian influenza preparedness. I have a master’s degree in International Health. I’m not a physician. I’m not a nurse. My specialty isn’t patient care or taking care of individual people. My specialty is looking at populations and health systems, what happens when diseases move on the large level. If we’re ranking sources of global health expertise on a scale of one to 10, one is some random person ranting on Facebook and 10 is the World Health Organization, I’d say you can probably put me at like a seven or an eight. So keep that in mind as I talk to you.

I’ll start with the basics here, because I think that’s gotten lost in some of the media noise around COVID-19. So, COVID-19 is a coronavirus. Coronaviruses are a specific subset of virus, and they have some unique characteristics as viruses. They use RNA instead of DNA as their genetic material, and they’re covered in spikes on the surface of the virus. They use those spikes to invade cells. Those spikes are the corona in coronavirus. COVID-19 is known as a novel coronavirus because, until December, we’d only heard of six coronaviruses. COVID-19 is the seventh. It’s new to us. It just had its gene sequencing, it just got its name. That’s why it’s novel.

If you remember SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome, those were coronaviruses. And they’re both called respiratory syndromes, because that’s what coronaviruses do – they go for your lungs. They don’t make you puke, they don’t make you bleed from the eyeballs, they don’t make you hemorrhage. They head for your lungs.

COVID-19 is no different. It causes a range of respiratory symptoms that go from stuff like a dry cough and a fever all the way out to fatal viral pneumonia. And that range of symptoms is one of the reasons it’s actually been so hard to track this outbreak. Plenty of people get COVID-19 but so gently, their symptoms are so mild, they don’t even go to a health care provider. They don’t register in the system. Children, in particular, have it very easy with COVID-19, which is something we should all be grateful for.

Coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means that they transmit from animals to people. Some coronaviruses, like COVID-19, also transmit person to person. The person-to-person ones travel faster and travel farther, just like COVID-19. Zoonotic illnesses are really hard to get rid of, because they have an animal reservoir. One example is avian influenza, where we can abolish it in farmed animals, in turkeys, in ducks, but it keeps coming back every year because it’s brought to us by wild birds. You don’t hear a lot about it because avian influenza doesn’t transmit person-to-person, but we have outbreaks in poultry farms every year all over the world. COVID-19 most likely skipped from animals into people at a wild animal market in Wuhan, China.

Now for the less basic parts. This is not the last major outbreak we’re ever going to see. There’s going to be more outbreaks, and there’s going to be more epidemics. That’s not a maybe. That’s a given. And it’s a result of the way that we, as human beings, are interacting with our planet. Human choices are driving us into a position where we’re going to see more outbreaks. Part of that is about climate change and the way a warming climate makes the world more hospitable to viruses and bacteria. But it’s also about the way we’re pushing into the last wild spaces on our planet.

When we burn and plow the Amazon rain forest so that we can have cheap land for ranching, when the last of the African bush gets converted to farms, when wild animals in China are hunted to extinction, human beings come into contact with wildlife populations that they’ve never come into contact with before, and those populations have new kinds of diseases: bacteria, viruses, stuff we’re not ready for. Bats, in particular, have a knack for hosting illnesses that can infect people, but they’re not the only animals that do it. So as long as we keep making our remote places less remote, the outbreaks are going to keep coming.

We can’t stop the outbreaks with quarantine or travel restrictions. That’s everybody’s first impulse: “Let’s stop the people from moving. Let’s stop this outbreak from happening.” But the fact is, it’s really hard to get a good quarantine in place. It’s really hard to set up travel restrictions. Even the countries that have made serious investments in public health, like the US and South Korea, can’t get that kind of restriction in place fast enough to actually stop an outbreak instantly. There’s logistical reasons for that, and there’s medical reasons. If you look at COVID-19 right now, it seems like it could have a period where you’re infected and show no symptoms that’s as long as 24 days. So people are walking around with this virus showing no signs. They’re not going to get quarantined. Nobody knows they need quarantining.

There’s also some real costs to quarantine and to travel restrictions. Humans are social animals, and they resist when you try to hold them into place and when you try to separate them. We saw in the Ebola outbreak that as soon as you put a quarantine in place, people start trying to evade it. Individual patients, if they know there’s a strict quarantine protocol, may not go for health care, because they’re afraid of the medical system or they can’t afford care and they don’t want to be separated from their family and friends. Politicians, government officials, when they know that they’re going to get quarantined if they talk about outbreaks and cases, may conceal real information for fear of triggering a quarantine protocol. And, of course, these kinds of evasions and dishonesty are exactly what makes it so difficult to track a disease outbreak. We can get better at quarantines and travel restrictions, and we should, but they’re not our only option, and they’re not our best option for dealing with these situations.

The real way for the long haul to make outbreaks less serious is to build the global health system to support core health care functions in every country in the world so that all countries, even poor ones, are able to rapidly identify and treat new infectious diseases as they emerge. China’s taken a lot of criticism for its response to COVID-19. But the fact is, what if COVID-19 had emerged in Chad, which has three and a half doctors for every hundred thousand people? What if it had emerged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which just released its last Ebola patient from treatment? The truth is, countries like this don’t have the resources to respond to an infectious disease – not to treat people and not to report on it fast enough to help the rest of the world.

I led an evaluation of Ebola treatment centers in Sierra Leone, and the fact is that local doctors in Sierra Leone identified the Ebola crisis very quickly, first as a dangerous, contagious hemorrhagic virus and then as Ebola itself. But, having identified it, they didn’t have the resources to respond. They didn’t have enough doctors, they didn’t have enough hospital beds and they didn’t have enough information about how to treat Ebola or how to implement infection control. Eleven doctors died in Sierra Leone of Ebola. The country only had 120 when the crisis started. By way of contrast, Dallas Baylor Medical Center has more than a thousand physicians on staff.

These are the kinds of inequities that kill people. First, they kill the poor people when the outbreaks start, and then they kill people all over the world when the outbreaks spread. If we really want to slow down these outbreaks and minimize their impact, we need to make sure that every country in the world has the capacity to identify new diseases, treat them and report about them so they can share information.

COVID-19 is going to be a huge burden on health systems. COVID-19 has also revealed some real weaknesses in our global health supply chains. Just-in-time-ordering, lean systems are great when things are going well, but in a time of crisis, what it means is we don’t have any reserves. If a hospital – or a country – runs out of face masks or personal protective equipment, there’s no big warehouse full of boxes that we can go to to get more. You have to order more from the supplier, you have to wait for them to produce it and you have to wait for them to ship it, generally from China. That’s a time lag at a time when it’s most important to move quickly.

If we’d been perfectly prepared for COVID-19, China would have identified the outbreak faster. They would have been ready to provide care to infected people without having to build new buildings. They would have shared honest information with citizens so that we didn’t see these crazy rumors spreading on social media in China. And they would have shared information with global health authorities so that they could start reporting to national health systems and getting ready for when the virus spread. National health systems would then have been able to stockpile the protective equipment they needed and train health care providers on treatment and infection control. We’d have science-based protocols for what to do when things happen, like cruise ships have infected patients. And we’d have real information going out to people everywhere, so we wouldn’t see embarrassing, shameful incidents of xenophobia, like Asian-looking people getting attacked on the street in Philadelphia. But even with all of that in place, we would still have outbreaks. The choices we’re making about how we occupy this planet make that inevitable.

As far as we have an expert consensus on COVID-19, it’s this: here in the US, and globally, it’s going to get worse before it gets better. We’re seeing cases of human transmission that aren’t from returning travel, that are just happening in the community, and we’re seeing people infected with COVID-19 when we don’t even know where the infection came from. Those are signs of an outbreak that’s getting worse, not an outbreak that’s under control.

It’s depressing, but it’s not surprising. Global health experts, when they talk about the scenario of new viruses, this is one of the scenarios that they look at. We all hoped we’d get off easy, but when experts talk about viral planning, this is the kind of situation and the way they expect the virus to move.

I want to close here with some personal advice. Wash your hands. Wash your hands a lot. I know you already wash your hands a lot because you’re not disgusting, but wash your hands even more. Set up cues and routines in your life to get you to wash your hands. Wash your hands every time you enter and leave a building. Wash your hands when you go into a meeting and when you come out of a meeting. Get rituals that are based around handwashing.

Sanitize your phone. You touch that phone with your dirty, unwashed hands all the time. I know you take it into the bathroom with you.

(Laughter)

So sanitize your phone and consider not using it as often in public. Maybe TikTok and Instagram can be home things only.

Don’t touch your face. Don’t rub your eyes. Don’t bite your fingernails. Don’t wipe your nose on the back of your hand. I mean, don’t do that anyway because, gross.

(Laughter)

Don’t wear a face mask. Face masks are for sick people and health care providers. If you’re sick, your face mask holds in all your coughing and sneezing and protects the people around you. And if you’re a health care provider, your face mask is one tool in a set of tools called personal protective equipment that you’re trained to use so that you can give patient care and not get sick yourself. If you’re a regular healthy person wearing a face mask, it’s just making your face sweaty.

(Laughter)

Leave the face masks in stores for the doctors and the nurses and the sick people.

If you think you have symptoms of COVID-19, stay home, call your doctor for advice. If you’re diagnosed with COVID-19, remember it’s generally very mild. And if you’re a smoker, right now is the best possible time to quit smoking. I mean, if you’re a smoker, right now is always the best possible time to quit smoking, but if you’re a smoker and you’re worried about COVID-19, I guarantee that quitting is absolutely the best thing you can do to protect yourself from the worst impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19 is scary stuff, at a time when pretty much all of our news feels like scary stuff. And there’s a lot of bad but appealing options for dealing with it: panic, xenophobia, agoraphobia, authoritarianism, oversimplified lies that make us think that hate and fury and loneliness are the solution to outbreaks. But they’re not. They just make us less prepared.

There’s also a boring but useful set of options that we can use in response to outbreaks, things like improving health care here and everywhere; investing in health infrastructure and disease surveillance so that we know when the new diseases come; building health systems all over the world; looking at strengthening our supply chains so they’re ready for emergencies; and better education, so we’re capable of talking about disease outbreaks and the mathematics of risk without just blind panic.

We need to be guided by equity here, because in this situation, like so many, equity is actually in our own self-interest.

So thank you so much for listening to me today, and can I be the first one to tell you: wash your hands when you leave the theater.

(Applause)


在开始演讲之前,我想要申明自己的相关资历,这样做,老实说是因为你在新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)这件事上,真的不应该倾听任何一个长者的想法。

(笑声)

我从事全球卫生工作大约有 20 年了,我的特定技术专长是卫生系统以及当卫生系统遭到严重冲击时 会发生什么。 我也一直在全球卫生相关的新闻业工作,我为报纸和网络媒体撰写过不少关于全球卫生和生物安全的文章,在几年前也我也出版过一本书,这本书讲述了我们星球所面临的主要全球卫生威胁。我支持并领导了许多流行病相关的工作 —— 从评估埃博拉治疗中心到研究医疗机构中肺结核的传播机制,再到禽流感的准备工作。我是国际卫生专业的硕士。我不是医生,也不是护士。我的专长不是照顾病患,或照顾个体。我的专长是研究总体人口、卫生系统,并研究当疾病大规模传播时会发生什么。如果我们把关于全球卫生的知识来源用 1 到 10 来形容其专业度,1 是随意一个在 Facebook 上肆意怒吼的人,10 是世界卫生组织(WHO), 我会说你大概能把我放在 7 或 8 的位置上。接下来我进行演讲的时候,请你记住这一点。

我先从最基础的开始,因为我觉得这在许多嘈杂的关于 COVID-19 的媒体报道中被遗漏了。所以,COVID-19 是一种冠状病毒(Coronavirus)。冠状病毒是病毒的一个特定子集,它们具有某些特定的病毒特征 —— 它们使用 RNA 而非 DNA 作为它们的遗传物质,它们的外表面被棘突包围,并以此来入侵细胞。这些棘突使得冠状病毒看起来像皇冠。 COVID-19 被认为是一种新型冠状病毒,因为在 12 月之前,我们只知道 6 种冠状病毒。COVID-19 是第 7 种。对我们来说是新的。它们刚经历了基因测序,才有了自己的名字。这也就是为何它们是“新型的”。

如果你记得非典,重症急性呼吸综合征(SARS),或是 MERS 病毒,中东呼吸综合征(MERS),这些都是由冠状病毒引发的。而且它们都被称作为呼吸综合征,是因为这是冠状病毒的特长 —— 它们专攻肺部。它们不会让你呕吐或是让你从眼睛里流血,它们也不会让你大出血。而是直奔你的肺部。

COVID-19 也一样。它能引发一系列呼吸道症状,从干咳、发烧等一系列症状,到致命的病毒性肺炎。如此广泛的症状也就是为何如此难以追踪疾病爆发的原因之一。不少人感染了 COVID-19 ,但是非常轻度的感染。他们的症状如此轻微,甚至不用去医疗机构,也不用将自己上报到系统中。尤其是孩子,能够非常轻易地抵抗 COVID-19。这是我们所有人都应该感到庆幸的一个事实。

冠状病毒是动物源性病毒,这意味着它们能从动物传播至人类。有些冠状病毒,例如 COVID-19 也能通过人与人传播。人人传播的方式感染得更快且范围更广,就像 COVID-19。动物源性疾病真的很难摆脱,因为它们有着一个很大的动物储备。一个例子就是禽流感,我们可以在农场动物比如火鸡和鸭子中消灭它,但它依旧每年都会发生,因为禽流感能通过野鸟传播到人。你不常听到人们谈及它,因为禽流感不会人人传播,但其实世界范围的家禽农场每年都会出现禽流感的大爆发。COVID-19 很可能就是在中国武汉的野生动物市场中从动物身上转移到了人。

现在说点不是那么基础的东西。这不是我们人类历史上能看到的最后一场重大疾病爆发。往后将会有更多的爆发,更多的流行病。这不是概率事件,而是既定事实。这是我们作为人类,与地球互动方式的结果。人类的选择把我们推入一个未来会看到更多流行病爆发的境地。其中一部分,是气候变化,变暖的气候让世界对病毒和细菌变得更加生存环境友好。但这也与我们逼近地球上最后的野外空间的方式有关。

当我们在亚马逊雨林的土地上焚烧并耕种,我们以此希望低成本经营牧场,当最后一片非洲丛林被转化为农场,当中国的野生动物被猎杀到几近灭绝,人们与不同野生动物种群开始了前所未有的联系,之后那些野生动物种群可携带各种新的疾病:细菌、病毒,我们毫无准备的东西。尤其是蝙蝠,有一种本事:它们能作为可以传染给人的疾病的宿主,不过不仅蝙蝠有这种能力。所以只要我们继续逼近偏远的地方,流行病的爆发将会一直持续。

我们无法用隔离或旅行限制来停止疾病大爆发。这是每个人的第一反应:“我们要禁止人口流动,我们要阻止这场疫情的发生。” 但实际上,真的很难做到有效适当的隔离,也真的很难做到设置旅行限制。 即使是在公共卫生领域投入足够预算的国家,像是美国和韩国,都无法快速做到那样有效的限制隔离以即刻阻止这场疫情的爆发。这其中有物流原因,也有医学原因。如果你现在看看 COVID-19,看起来会有一段时间 —— 你已经被感染但没有任何症状 —— 能长达 24 天。所以人们携带着这个病毒走来走去,没有任何征兆。他们不会被隔离,也没人知道他们自己需要被隔离。

隔离和旅行限制也有一些真实代价。人类是一种社交动物,当你尝试把他们限定在一个地方,尝试把他们分隔开来,他们会反抗。在埃博拉的时候,我们看到只要你开始实行隔离,人们就会开始尝试逃离。 个别病人,如果知道有一个严格的隔离处理流程的存在,可能就不会选择去看病,因为他们害怕这样的医疗流程,或他们担心自己经济上无法承担,而且,他们不想要与自己的家人和朋友分开。政客和政府官员,当他们知道自己将会被隔离,如果他们谈及疫情和病例,可能会隐藏真实信息,从而避免触发隔离处理流程。当然,正是这些回避的态度与不诚实的手段 让疫情控制变得如此困难。通过隔离和旅行限制,我们能好得更快,我们也应该这么做,但是这不是唯二的方法,也不是我们应对这些疾病爆发的最佳选择。

能够长期预防流行病爆发的真正方法是建立一个全球卫生系统以支持世界上每个国家核心医疗保健的职能运作,以让所有的国家,乃至于贫穷国家,在新的传染病萌发之时都能够快速识别并治疗它。中国应对 COVID-19 的措施受到了很多批判。但实际,倘若 COVID-19 出现在在每 10 万人口只有 3.5 名医生的乍得?要是 COVID-19 出现在最后一名埃博拉病人刚出院的刚果民主共和国 ?真相是,这些国家没有资源来应对这样的一种传染病。 它们无法治疗病患且无法快速上报该疾病的爆发来帮助世界上其它国家共同应对这场危机。

我曾领导了一场在塞拉利昂埃博拉治疗中心的评估工作,事实是塞拉利昂当地的医生很快就识别到了埃博拉危机,首先,是危险的,具有传染性的出血性病毒,之后再是埃博拉病毒本身。但是,尽管识别到了病毒,他们没有资源去应对。他们没有足够的医生,没有充足的床位,而且他们没有足够的信息去了解如何治疗埃博拉,或是如何实施感染控制。在塞拉利昂有 11 名医生死于埃博拉。在这场危机开始之前,这个国家只有 120 名医生。相比之下,仅是达拉斯贝勒大学医学中心就拥有超过 1 千名医生的团队。

诸如此类的不平等会导致人们的死亡。首先,在疫情萌芽时,最先受到死亡威胁的是穷人,其后,当疫情爆发,再是全世界的人。如果我们真的想要 减少这些流行病的爆发并且最小化它们的影响,我们需要确保世界上每个国家都有能力识别新的疾病、治疗它们,并且及时上报以共享信息。

COVID-19 将会成为卫生体系的一个重大负担。 COVID-19 已经揭示了我们全球卫生供应链中一些真实存在的弱点。实施准时下单和精益生产系统在正常情况下很管用,但是在危机时刻,这意味着我们没有足够的物资储备。如果一家医院,或一个国家,耗空了口罩或个人防护用品,又没有一个大满仓的物资储备供我们继续使用,你就不得不从供应商那里买更多,之后你得等供应商生产,你还得等他们发货送货,一般都是从中国发货。在非常需要快速行动的时候,这是一个时间滞后。

如果我们早前已经为 COVID-19 做好了充分的准备,中国就能更快地识别疫情。他们就不用临时建造新楼为感染者提供医疗照顾。他们也就能如实地和群众分享信息,这样在中国的社交媒体上谣言不会如我们所见般四散。 而且他们也能和全球卫生机构分享信息,这样他们就能开始向国家卫生系统上报并为病毒的传播做足准备。国家卫生系统接到上报后也能大量储备他们所需数量的防护用品以及针对治疗和感染控制,为医疗机构进行培训。我们也就会有基于科学的处理流程,告诉我们事情发生的时候该怎么处理,例如有被感染患者搭乘的邮轮。如果我们能为各地所有人放出真实准确的信息,我们也不会看到那么多令人难堪且羞耻的仇外事件的发生,例如具有亚洲长相的人在费城街头被攻击。但即使,我们能把所有的这些都做到位,流行病的爆发依旧会发生。我们对如何霸占这个星球的选择使之变成了一个无法逃避的现实。

目前而言,专家们 针对 COVID-19 的一个共识是:在美国,和全世界,情况在变好之前,会先变得更糟。我们看到很多人传人的病例,这并非由旅行归来引发,而是正在社区中传播,我们甚至在感染源未知的情况下,不断看到人们被 COVID-19 感染。这些都是疫情加剧的迹象,而非受到控制。

这很令人沮丧,但并不令人意外。全球卫生专家,当他们讨论新病毒的情景时,这是他们所关心的一种情景。我们都希望此次疫情能很快过去,但当专家们谈论病毒规划时,他们预判病毒会以这种情景和这种方式继续传播。

我想要以一些个人建议收尾。洗手。勤洗手。我知道你经常洗手,因为你是爱干净的,但是请洗手洗得更勤快一些。在你日常生活中,设置一些能让你洗手的小提示和常规。每次进出大楼,洗手。每次开始和结束会议,洗手。养成洗手相关的习惯。

清洁你的手机。你总是用脏手碰你的手机。我知道你会带着手机进洗手间。

(笑声)

所以清洁你的手机,尽量不要在公共场合过度使用。抖音和 Instagram 在家看看可能就够了。

不要摸脸。不要揉眼睛。不要咬手指甲。不要用手背擦鼻子。不管怎样别那么做,因为有点恶心。

(笑声)

不要戴口罩。口罩是生病的人和医务人员使用的。如果你生病了,你的口罩可以兜住所有咳嗽和打喷嚏的飞沫并且保护你周围的人。如果你是一名医务人员,你的口罩是众多个人防护用品中的一个工具,你也被训练说:戴上口罩再治疗病患,并且保证自己不生病。如果你是一个正常的健康的人,戴口罩只能让你的脸出汗。

(笑声)

把商店里的口罩留给医生、护士和病人。

如果你认为你有 COVID-19 的症状,呆在家,打电话给你的医生以寻求建议。如果你被检测为 COVID-19 阳性,记住普遍上说它是很轻度的。之后如果你是烟民,现在可能是你的最佳戒烟时机。我是说,如果你是烟民,任何时刻都可能是你最佳戒烟时机,但如果你是烟民并且担心 COVID-19 找上门,我保证戒烟绝对是你能做出的保护自己免受病毒入侵最糟影响的最好的选择。

COVID-19 是一个恐怖的东西,这段时间几乎每一条新闻看起来都很恐怖。之后也有很多不好却吸引人的方式来应对这件事:恐慌、仇外、广场恐惧、权威主义,以及过度简化的谎言使我们认为厌恶、愤怒和孤独是疫情的解决方案。但它们不是。它们只会让我们变得更脆弱。

我们也可以使用一些无聊但有用的方式来应对流行病的爆发。比如改善全球每个地方的医疗保健;投资于卫生基础设施和疾病监测这样我们能知道新疾病的到来;建立全球卫生体系;致力于加强我们的供应链以让它们能准备好应对突发情况;还有更好的教育,以让我们能在不建立盲目恐慌的前提下,正常地谈论疾病的爆发和风险的数学可能。

在这种情况下,我们需要以公平为指导,因为很多时候,在危机下,公平实际上是我们的自身利益。

非常感谢今天在座的聆听,而且我能成为第一个人,告诉你:当你离开剧场的时候请认真洗手。

(掌声)

How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? - Adam Kucharski - The TED Interview - Transcript

As the threat of COVID-19 continues, infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski answers five key questions about the novel coronavirus, providing necessary perspective on its transmission, how governments have responded and what might need to change about our social behavior to end the pandemic.

Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?

问题1:我们应该怎样控制住流行病的蔓延?

Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control very much on the cases and their contacts. So you’re not causing disruption to the wider population, you have a case that comes in, you isolate them, you work out who they’ve come into contact with, who’s potentially these opportunities for exposure and then you can follow up those people, maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens. So it’s a very focused, targeted method, and for SARS, it worked remarkably well. But I think for this infection, because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected, you’ve really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk. If a few slip through the net, potentially, you’re going to get an outbreak.

对疫情的控制指的是集中精力控制住确诊病例和与他们有接触的人。这样就不会引起人群大规模的混乱,一发现确诊病例,就将他们进行隔离,找出与他们有过接触的人,存在被感染可能性的人,然后持续跟进这群人,或者将他们进行隔离,确保疫情不会进一步蔓延。所以这是一种针对性很强的方法,这种方法对控制非典(SARS)来说很奏效。但我认为对于这次的感染,因为有些病例不会被发现和检测到,就得注意一大群存在被感染风险的人。如果有漏网之鱼,那么就会面临疫情爆发的潜在风险。

Question 2: If containment isn’t enough, what comes next?

问题2:如果光控制疫情还不够的话,我们下一步应该做什么?

In that respect, it would be about massive changes in our social interactions. And so that would require, of the opportunities that could spread the virus so these kind of close contacts, everybody in the population, on average, will be needing to reduce those interactions potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control. That might be through working from home, from changing lifestyle and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners. And of course, these measures, things like school closures, and other things that just attempt to reduce the social mixing of a population.

那样的话,我们的社交方式需要进行巨大改变。那包括,减少所有可能导致病毒传播的机会,像是近距离接触,平均而言,每个人就得减少大约三分之二这种近接触的机会才能有效控制疫情传播。可以通过在家办公,改变生活方式,不去拥挤的场所与餐厅来实现。当然了,像是关闭学校和其他的措施,只能做到尽量避免人群密集接触。

Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?

问题3:我们需要考虑到哪些可能被传染的风险?

It’s not just whose hand you shake, it’s whose hand that person goes on to shake. And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps, that you might think you have low risk and you’re in a younger group, but you’re often going to be a very short step away from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this. And I think we really need to be socially minded and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior, but it needs to be to reduce the impact that we’re potentially facing.

重要的不只是你和哪些人握了手,还有那些人会和哪些人握手。我认为我们应该考虑下这些第二阶段的步骤,你也许会觉得你被感染的风险很低,你比较年轻,但你通常会离那些一旦得病就将面临致命风险的人很近。正因如此,我认为我们应具有社会意识,这将导致我们的行为模式产生重大变化,但为了减少我们可能面临的负面影响,这些是必须要做到的。

Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?

问题4:我们该和他人保持多远的距离?

I think it’s hard to pin down exactly, but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there’s not so much evidence that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far – it’s reasonably short distances. I don’t think it’s the case that you’re sitting a few meters away from someone and the virus is somehow going to get across. It’s in closer interactions, and it’s why we’re seeing so many transmission events occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups. Because if you imagine that’s where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces and onto hands and onto faces, and it’s really situations like that we’ve got to think more about.

要想说出一个具体数字是很困难的,但我认为大家应记住,目前并没有足够证据表明这种包含病毒的气溶胶能传播很远的距离 —— 它理应只能在很短的距离内传播。我并不认为你坐在离另一人几米远的地方病毒还能穿过这么远的距离。我们应该注意的是近距离接触,这是那么多传染案例发生于就餐场所和人员密集的团体中的原因。因为可以想像,在那些地方病毒更容易到达我们手和脸的表面,我们更应关注这些情况。

Question 5: What kind of protective measures should countries put in place?

问题5:世界各国应落实哪些预防措施?

I think that’s what people are trying to piece together, first in terms of what works. It’s only really in the last sort of few weeks we’ve got a sense that this thing can be controllable with this extent of interventions, but of course, not all countries can do what China have done, some of these measures incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden on populations. And of course, there’s the time limit. In China, they’ve had them in for six weeks, it’s tough to maintain that, so we need to think of these tradeoffs of all the things we can ask people to do, what’s going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.

我认为大家应首先考虑那些被证实有效的措施。我们也是直到前几周才意识到这种病毒在某种程度的国家干预下是可控的,但当然,并不是所有国家都能做到中国所做的那些,有些措施会对全国人民施加 巨大的社会,经济,和心理上的负担。当然了,还要考虑到时间限制。中国仅花了 6 周就控制住了病毒的传播,要做到这点是很难的,所以我们应进行权衡,想想我们能让人民做些什么,哪些措施能最大程度地减少施加于人民身上的负担。

LeetCode - Algorithms - 709. To Lower Case

Problem

709. To Lower Case

Java

bitwise operator

© 10 cool bitwise operator hacks and tricks every programmer must know - Quickly convert character to lowercase and uppercase

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class Solution {
public String toLowerCase(String str) {
char[] a = str.toCharArray();
for (int i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {
a[i] = (char) (a[i] | ' ');
}
return String.valueOf(a);
}
}

Submission Detail

  • 8 / 8 test cases passed.
  • Runtime: 0 ms, faster than 100.00% of Java online submissions for To Lower Case.
  • Memory Usage: 36.9 MB, less than 46.27% of Java online submissions for To Lower Case.

jdk

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class Solution {
public String toLowerCase(String str) {
return str.toLowerCase();
}
}

Submission Detail

  • 8 / 8 test cases passed.
  • Runtime: 0 ms, faster than 100.00% of Java online submissions for To Lower Case.
  • Memory Usage: 37.6 MB, less than 6.49% of Java online submissions for To Lower Case.

2

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class Solution {
public String toLowerCase(String str) {
String s = "";
for(int i=0;i<str.length();i++) {
s += Character.toLowerCase(str.charAt(i));
}
return s;
}
}

Submission Detail

  • 8 / 8 test cases passed.
  • Runtime: 4 ms, faster than 10.90% of Java online submissions for To Lower Case.
  • Memory Usage: 37.4 MB, less than 6.49% of Java online submissions for To Lower Case.

Sonnet 129

by William Shakespeare

ORIGINAL TEXT

Th’ expense of spirit in a waste of shame
Is lust in action; and till action, lust
Is perjured, murd’rous, bloody, full of blame,
Savage, extreme, rude, cruel, not to trust,
Enjoyed no sooner but despisèd straight,
Past reason hunted; and, no sooner had
Past reason hated as a swallowed bait
On purpose laid to make the taker mad;
Mad in pursuit and in possession so,
Had, having, and in quest to have, extreme;
A bliss in proof and proved, a very woe;
Before, a joy proposed; behind, a dream.
All this the world well knows; yet none knows well
To shun the heaven that leads men to this hell.

MODERN TEXT

The expense of spirit in a waste of shame
Is lust in action; and till action, lust
Is perjured, murderous, bloody, full of blame,
Savage, extreme, rude, cruel, not to trust;

Enjoyed no sooner but despised straight;
Past reason hunted; and no sooner had,
Past reason hated, as a swallowed bait,
On purpose laid to make the taker mad;

Mad in pursuit, and in possession so;
Had, having, and in quest to have, extreme;
A bliss in proof, and proved, a very woe;
Before, a joy proposed; behind, a dream.

All this the world well knows; yet none knows well
To shun the heaven that leads men to this hell.