BY JOEL KOTKIN
For centuries we have used maps to delineate borders that have been defined by politics. But it may be time to chuck many of our notions about how humanity organizes itself. Across the world a resurgence of tribal ties is creating more complex global alliances. Where once diplomacy defined borders, now history, race, ethnicity, religion, and culture are dividing humanity into dynamic new groupings.
Broad concepts — green, socialist, or market-capitalist ideology — may animate cosmopolitan elites, but they generally do not motivate most people. Instead, the “tribe” is valued far more than any universal ideology. As the great Arab historian Ibn Khaldun observed: “Only Tribes held together by a group feeling can survive in a desert.”
Although tribal connections are as old as history, political upheaval and globalization are magnifying their impact. The world’s new contours began to emerge with the end of the Cold War. Maps designating separate blocs aligned to the United States or the Soviet Union were suddenly irrelevant. More recently, the notion of a united Third World has been supplanted by the rise of China and India. And newer concepts like the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) are undermined by the fact that these countries have vastly different histories and cultures.
The borders of this new world will remain protean, subject to change over time. Some places do not fit easily into wide categories — take that peculiar place called France — so we’ve defined them as Stand-Alones. And there are the successors to the great city-states of the Renaissance — places like London and Singapore. What unites them all are ties defined by affinity, not geography.
1. New Hansa
Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden
In the 13th century, an alliance of Northern European towns called the Hanseatic League created what historian Fernand Braudel called a “common civilization created by trading.” Today’s expanded list of Hansa states share Germanic cultural roots, and they have found their niche by selling high-value goods to developed nations, as well as to burgeoning markets in Russia, China, and India. Widely admired for their generous welfare systems, most of these countries have liberalized their economies in recent years. They account for six of the top eight countries on the Legatum Prosperity Index and boast some of the world’s highest savings rates (25 percent or more), as well as impressive levels of employment, education, and technological innovation.
2. The Border Areas
Belgium, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, U.K.
These countries are seeking to find their place in the new tribal world. Many of them, including Romania and Belgium, are a cultural mishmash. They can be volatile; Ireland has gone from being a “Celtic tiger” to a financial basket case. In the past, these states were often overrun by the armies of powerful neighbors; in the future, they may be fighting for their autonomy against competing zones of influence.
3. Olive Republics
Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain
With roots in Greek and Roman antiquity, these lands of olives and wine lag behind their Nordic counterparts in virtually every category: poverty rates are almost twice as high, labor participation is 10 to 20 percent lower. Almost all the Olive Republics—led by Greece, Spain, and Portugal—have huge government debt compared with most Hansa countries. They also have among the lowest birthrates: Italy is vying with Japan to be the country with the world’s oldest population.
It’s a center for finance and media, but London may be best understood as a world-class city in a second-rate country.
Accounts for nearly 25 percent of France’s GDP and is home to many of its global companies. It’s not as important as London, but there will always be a market for this most beautiful of cities.
In a world increasingly shaped by Asia, its location between the Pacific and Indian oceans may be the best on the planet. With one of the world’s great ports, and high levels of income and education, it is a great urban success story.
While much of nationalist-religious Israel is a heavily guarded borderland, Tel Aviv is a secular city with a burgeoning economy. It accounts for the majority of Israel’s high-tech exports; its per capita income is estimated to be 50 percent above the national average, and four of Israel’s nine billionaires live in the city or its suburbs.
5. North American Alliance
Canada, United States
These two countries are joined at the hip in terms of their economies, demographics, and culture, with each easily being the other’s largest trade partner. Many pundits see this vast region in the grip of inexorable decline. They’re wrong, at least for now. North America boasts many world-class cities, led by New York; the world’s largest high-tech economy; the most agricultural production; and four times as much fresh water per capita as either Europe or Asia.
6. Liberalistas
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru
These countries are the standard–bearers of democracy and capitalism in Latin America. Still suffering low household income and high poverty rates, they are trying to join the ranks of the fast-growing economies, such as China’s. But the notion of breaking with the U.S.—the traditionally dominant economic force in the region—would seem improbable for some of them, notably Mexico, with its close geographic and ethnic ties. Yet the future of these economies is uncertain; will they become more state-oriented or pursue economic liberalism?
7. Bolivarian Republics
Argentina, Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Venezuela
Led by Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, large parts of Latin America are swinging back toward dictatorship and following the pattern of Peronism, with its historical antipathy toward America and capitalism. The Chávez-influenced states are largely poor; the percentage of people living in poverty is more than 60 percent in Bolivia. With their anti-gringo mindset, mineral wealth, and energy reserves, they are tempting targets for rising powers like China and Russia.
8. Stand-Alones
South America’s largest economy, Brazil straddles the ground between the Bolivarians and the liberal republics of the region. Its resources, including offshore oil, and industrial prowess make it a second-tier superpower (after North America, Greater India, and the Middle Kingdom). But huge social problems, notably crime and poverty, fester. Brazil recently has edged away from its embrace of North America and sought out new allies, notably China and Iran.
France remains an advanced, cultured place that tries to resist Anglo-American culture and the shrinking relevance of the EU. No longer a great power, it is more consequential than an Olive Republic but not as strong as the Hansa.
India has one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, but its household income remains roughly a third less than that of China. At least a quarter of its 1.3 billion people live in poverty, and its growing megacities, notably Mumbai and Kolkata, are home to some of the world’s largest slums. But it’s also forging ahead in everything from auto manufacturing to software production.
With its financial resources and engineering savvy, Japan remains a world power. But it has been replaced by China as the world’s No. 2 economy. In part because of its resistance to immigration, by 2050 upwards of 35 percent of the population could be over 60. At the same time, its technological edge is being eroded by South Korea, China, India, and the U.S.
South Korea has become a true technological power. Forty years ago its per capita income was roughly comparable to that of Ghana; today it is 15 times larger, and Korean median household income is roughly the same as Japan’s. It has bounced back brilliantly from the global recession but must be careful to avoid being sucked into the engines of an expanding China.
It’s essentially a city-state connected to the world not by sea lanes but by wire transfers and airplanes. It enjoys prosperity, ample water supplies, and an excellent business climate.
9. Russian Empire
Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, Russian Federation, Ukraine
Russia has enormous natural resources, considerable scientific-technological capacity, and a powerful military. As China waxes, Russia is trying to assert itself in Ukraine, Georgia, and Central Asia. Like the old tsarist version, the new Russian empire relies on the strong ties of the Russian Slavic identity, an ethnic group that accounts for roughly four fifths of its 140 million people. It is a middling country in terms of household income — roughly half of Italy’s — and also faces a rapidly aging population.
10. The Wild East
Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan
This part of the world will remain a center of contention between competing regions, including China, India, Turkey, Russia, and North America.
11. Iranistan
Bahrain, Gaza Strip, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria
With oil reserves, relatively high levels of education, and an economy roughly the size of Turkey’s, Iran should be a rising superpower. But its full influence has been curbed by its extremist ideology, which conflicts not only with Western countries but also with Greater Arabia. A poorly managed economy has turned the region into a net importer of consumer goods, high-tech equipment, food, and even refined petroleum.
12. Greater Arabia
Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Palestinian Territories, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
This region’s oil resources make it a key political and financial player. But there’s a huge gap between the Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and the more impoverished states. Abu Dhabi has a per capita income of roughly $40,000, while Yemen suffers along with as little as 5 percent of that number. A powerful cultural bond—religion and race—ties this area together but makes relations with the rest of the world problematic.
13. The New Ottomans
Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
Turkey epitomizes the current reversion to tribe, focusing less on Europe than on its eastern front. Although ties to the EU remain its economic linchpin, the country has shifted economic and foreign policy toward its old Ottoman holdings in the Mideast and ethnic brethren in Central Asia. Trade with both Russia and China is also on the rise.
14. South African Empire
Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zimbabwe
South Africa’s economy is by far the largest and most diversified in Africa. It has good infrastructure, mineral resources, fertile land, and a strong industrial base. Per capita income of $10,000 makes it relatively wealthy by African standards. It has strong cultural ties with its neighbors, Lesotho, Botswana, and Namibia, which are also primarily Christian.
15. Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo-Kinshasa, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia
Mostly former British or French colonies, these countries are divided between Muslim and Christian, French and English speakers, and lack cultural cohesion. A combination of natural resources and poverty rates of 70 or 80 percent all but assure that cash-rich players like China, India, and North America will seek to exploit the region.
16. Maghrebian Belt
Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia
In this region, spanning the African coast of the Mediterranean, there are glimmers of progress in relatively affluent countries like Libya and Tunisia. But they sit amid great concentrations of poverty.
17. Middle Kingdom
China, Hong Kong, Taiwan
China may not, as the IMF recently predicted, pass the U.S. in GDP within a decade or so, but it’s undoubtedly the world’s emerging superpower. Its ethnic solidarity and sense of historical superiority remain remarkable. Han Chinese account for more than 90 percent of the population and constitute the world’s single largest racial-cultural group. This national cultural cohesion, many foreign companies are learning, makes penetrating this huge market even more difficult. China’s growing need for resources can be seen in its economic expansion in Africa, the Bolivarian Republics, and the Wild East. Its problems, however, are legion: a deeply authoritarian regime, a growing gulf between rich and poor, and environmental degradation. Its population is rapidly aging, which looms as a major problem over the next 30 years.
18. The Rubber Belt
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
These countries are rich in minerals, fresh water, rubber, and a variety of foodstuffs but suffer varying degrees of political instability. All are trying to industrialize and diversify their economies. Apart from Malaysia, household incomes remain relatively low, but these states could emerge as the next high-growth region.
19. Lucky Countries
Australia, New Zealand
Household incomes are similar to those in North America, although these economies are far less diversified. Immigration and a common Anglo-Saxon heritage tie them culturally to North America and the United Kingdom. But location and commodity-based economies mean China and perhaps India are likely to be dominant trading partners in the future.
Kotkin is a Distinguished Presidential Fellow at Chapman University of Orange County, Calif., and an adjunct fellow with the Legatum Institute in London. Legatum provided research for this article.
The New World Order: A Map BY JOEL KOTKIN ON 9/26/10 AT 7:00 AM EDT
几个世纪以来,我们一直用地图描绘已经由政治划定的疆界。但现在也许该是我们抛弃许多关于人类社会如何组织的观念的时候。世界各地部族纽带的复兴正在形成更多复杂的全球化联盟。过去由外交关系确定的边界,正在被种族、民族、宗教和文化等因素划分的动态群体解构。
空泛的概念——绿色,社会主义或市场资本主义等意识形态,或许能得到大都市精英的认同,但它们一般都不能引起大部分人的共鸣。相反,“部族”比其他任何普适观念都更有价值。正如伟大的阿拉伯历史学家伊本•哈勒敦所言:“只有以一种群体认同感和大家庭归宿感凝聚起来的部族才能在沙漠中存活。”
虽然部族纽带和历史一样古老,但政治格局的变化和全球化进程正在扩大其影响。冷战结束后新的世界轮廓开始显现。以美苏为首的两极结盟格局瓦解。最近,一个团结的第三世界概念已经被中国和印度的崛起所取代。新概念如金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)鉴于这些国家拥有完全不同的历史和文化而几乎不具有政治意义。
世界新格局的界线还将随着时间的推移而不断变化。有些地方不容易也不适于把它纳入某个类别中,比如法国,我们就把它作为独立的一类。而伟大的文艺复兴城邦的继承者——像伦敦和新加坡等地,使他们结为一体的是文化亲和力纽带而非地缘关系。
1.新汉萨
丹麦,芬兰,德国,荷兰,挪威,瑞典
13世纪,一个被称为“汉萨同盟”的北欧城市联盟发展成被历史学家费尔南•布罗代尔所谓的“贸易创生的共同文明”。如今这些新汉萨国家都有日耳曼文化渊源,而且他们已经通过销售高附加值商品给发达国家以及新兴市场国家如俄罗斯、中国和印度找到了自己的市场定位。他们因其高福利制度而受到世人的称道,近几年这些国家大部分都已经完全开放经济并融入全球市场。在列格坦繁荣指数最高的八个国家中这些国家就占了六个,并拥有世界上最高的储蓄率(25%甚至更高),以及就业、教育和技术创新等方面令人赞叹的领先水平。
2.欧洲边境地区
比利时,捷克共和国,爱沙尼亚,匈牙利,冰岛,爱尔兰,拉脱维亚,立陶宛,波兰,罗马尼亚,斯洛伐克,英国
这些国家正在努力寻找他们在这个部族化世界中的定位。其中的许多国家,包括罗马尼亚和比利时,是多元文化并存的国家。它们易变,爱尔兰已经从“凯尔特虎”变成了金融瘫痪的病猫。过去这些国家往往受制于强势邻国的军事力量,将来他们可能会寻求自治并为争夺势力范围而斗争。
3.橄榄共和国
保加利亚,克罗地亚,希腊,意大利,科索沃,马其顿,黑山,葡萄牙,斯洛文尼亚,西班牙
这些与古希腊和古罗马颇有渊源的盛产橄榄和葡萄酒的南欧国家,几乎在每个方面都落后于北欧各国:贫困率几乎高出一倍,就业率则比北欧低百分之十至二十。与大多数新汉萨国家相比,几乎所有橄榄共和国的政府都有巨额财政赤字,以希腊最严重,其次是西班牙和葡萄牙。他们也是全世界出生率最低的地区:在人口老龄化方面,意大利是与日本平分秋色的国家。
4.城邦
伦敦
金融和传媒中心,但也许对伦敦最好的理解可能是把它作为一个位于二流发达国家的世界级都市。
巴黎
巴黎一座城市就占了将近25%的法国国内生产总值,巴黎也是许多跨国公司的总部所在地。虽然它不及伦敦那么显要,但作为一个在全世界来说都称得上最美丽的城市,巴黎永远有她的吸引力。
新加坡
在亚洲对世界的影响越来越举足轻重的时代,新加坡的地理位置可能是这个星球上衔接太平洋和印度洋的最佳位置。作为全世界最大的港口之一,高的居民收入和教育水平,这是一个伟大的城邦国家的成功故事。
特拉维夫
尽管以民族主义和宗教立国的以色列的边防戒备森严,特拉维夫却是一个以新兴经济为特色的世俗城市。以色列的大多数高科技产业都云集于此;其人均收入估计高出全国平均水平50%左右,以色列的九个亿万富翁中就有四个居住在这座城市。
5.北美同盟
加拿大,美国
这两个国家在经济、人口、文化方面密不可分,彼此容易互补而成为对方的最大贸易伙伴。许多专家预计这片广袤的地区也会走向难以避免的衰退。他们错了,至少目前来说。北美有以纽约为首的众多世界级都市;世界上规模最大的高科技经济;全世界最发达的农业;人均淡水量是欧洲或亚洲的四倍之多。
6.走向自由主义的国家
智利,哥伦比亚,哥斯达黎加,墨西哥,秘鲁
这些国家是拉丁美洲标准的民主和资本主义的旗手。但仍被低居民收入和高贫困率所困扰,他们正尝试加入快速增长的经济体,比如中国的的行列。但对其中一些国家来说与美国这个在该地区占主导地位的传统经济力量分裂似乎不太可能,尤其是墨西哥与美国有着地理和民族方面的近缘关系。然而,这些经济体的未来是不明确的;不知道他们会走向国家资本主义还是经济自由主义?
7.玻利瓦尔共和国
阿根廷,玻利维亚,古巴,厄瓜多尔,尼加拉瓜,委内瑞拉
以委内瑞拉总统雨果•查韦斯为首,拉美大部分地区又恢复了独裁专制,以其历来对美国和资本主义的反感重蹈庇隆主义的后尘。受查韦斯主义影响的国家大都贫穷;玻利维亚的贫困人口超过60%。挟其反美立场、矿产资源和能源储备,他们很想以崛起的中国和俄罗斯为榜样提升其在国际社会的影响力。
8.难以归类的国家
巴西
作为南美最大的经济体,巴西的路线介于玻利瓦尔共和国和自由主义国家之间。丰富的资源(包括海上石油)和工业实力使其成为二流强国(排在北美、印度和中国之后)。但存在严重的社会问题,尤其是犯罪、贫困和腐败问题。巴西近来已经从拥抱北美转向寻求新的盟友,尤其青睐中国和伊朗。
法国
法国仍然是一个先进、以文明著称的地方,一直致力于推广法语文化以抵抗强势的英美文化,同时热衷于使欧盟成为一个更加紧密团结的经济体。它不再是一个大国,比南欧那些橄榄共和国要强大,但经济实力不及新汉萨国家。
印度
印度是世界上增长最快的经济体之一,但居民收入却不及中国的三分之一。整个国家的13亿人口中至少有四分之一处于贫困之中,其人口不断剧增的大城市,尤其是孟买和加尔各答,出现了一些世界上最大的贫民窟。但也在从汽车制造业到软件业等诸多行业扶摇直上。
日本
以其财富和工业实力而论,日本仍然是世界强国。但中国已取代其成为世界第二大经济体。人口老龄化相当突出,部分原因是其抵制移民的政策,到2050年左右其超过35%的国民的年龄将超过60岁。与此同时,其技术优势日益遭到韩国、中国、印度和美国的冲击。
韩国
韩国已经成为一个真正的科技强国。四十年前其人均收入与加纳不相上下,现在却是加纳的15倍,韩国的平均家庭收入已接近日本。其经济在全球经济衰退中表现出了良好的复苏态势,但它必须小心避免被吸入中国这台影响范围不断扩大的亚洲经济引擎。
瑞士
它本质上是一个通过电汇和航线而非海路与世界连接的城邦国家。一直保持着经济繁荣,充足的淡水资源和良好的商业环境。
9.俄罗斯帝国
亚美尼亚,白俄罗斯,摩尔多瓦,俄罗斯联邦,乌克兰
俄罗斯拥有储量丰富的自然资源,不容忽视的科技实力,以及强大的军事力量。就像中国扬言的那样,俄罗斯正试图在乌克兰、格鲁吉亚和中亚地区扩大其影响力。像过去的沙皇俄国一样,新的俄罗斯帝国的凝聚力来自于其斯拉夫民族的身份,占其1.4亿人口五分之四的民族。从居民收入来看俄罗斯是个中等国家,居民收入大约为意大利的一半,也面临人口迅速老龄化的问题。
10.狂野中亚
阿富汗,阿塞拜疆,哈萨克斯坦,吉尔吉斯斯坦,巴基斯坦,塔吉克斯坦
这些地方将继续作为中国、印度、土耳其、俄罗斯和北美等各大相互竞争的国际势力争锋较量的中心。
11.伊朗尼斯坦
巴林,加沙地带,伊朗,伊拉克,黎巴嫩,叙利亚
以其石油蕴含量、相对较高的教育水平以及与土耳其相当的经济规模,伊朗算得上是一股正在上升的势力。但其影响力受其极端意识形态的遏制,其意识形态不仅与西方文化冲突,而且与广大的阿拉伯文化也并不和睦。管理不善的经济使该地区变成一个消费品、高科技装备、粮食甚至成品油都完全要靠进口的地方。
12.泛阿拉伯
埃及,约旦,科威特,巴勒斯坦地区,沙特阿拉伯,阿拉伯联合酋长国,也门
这个地区的石油资源奠定了其在政治和金融方面的地位。但是在像沙特和阿联酋这样的波斯湾石油大亨国家和与他们相比相当贫困的其余国家之间有一个巨大的鸿沟。阿布扎比的人均收入接近4万美元,而也门的人均收入却只有前者的5%。一个基于宗教和种族的强韧的文化纽带把该地区结为一体,但与世界其他地区的关系却不太融洽。
13.新奥斯曼
土耳其,土库曼斯坦,乌兹别克斯坦
土耳其是当今世界回归部族趋势的典型,更关注其东部与亚洲接壤的地区而非西部与欧洲接壤的地区。虽然与欧盟的关系对其经济仍很关键,该国的经济和外交已转向奥斯曼帝国过去曾经控制的中东地区和中亚的同族兄弟国家。与俄罗斯和中国的贸易也呈上升态势。
14.南非帝国
博茨瓦纳,莱索托,纳米比亚,南非,斯威士兰,津巴布韦
南非的经济是非洲目前规模最大和最多元化的。它具有良好的基础设施、矿产资源、肥沃的土地和雄厚的工业基础。1万美元的人均收入已使其成为非洲相对富裕的国家。它与以基督教文化为主的大多数邻国莱索托、博茨瓦纳和纳米比亚等也有较强的文化联系。
15.撒哈拉以南的非洲
安哥拉,喀麦隆,中非共和国,刚果(金),埃塞俄比亚,加纳,肯尼亚,利比里亚,马拉维,马里,莫桑比克,尼日利亚,塞内加尔,塞拉利昂,苏丹,坦桑尼亚,多哥,乌干达,赞比亚
过去这些国家大都是英国或法国的殖民地,通常这些国家按以穆斯林为主还是以基督徒为主、说法语为主还是说英语为主来分别,缺乏文化的凝聚力。丰富的自然资源条件与70%甚至80%的高贫困率并存的现状必将招来中国、印度和北美等资金充足的国家开发利用该地区的资源。
16.马格里布联盟
阿尔及利亚,利比亚,毛里塔尼亚,摩洛哥,突尼斯
这个地带几乎遍及北非的地中海沿岸国家,像利比亚和突尼斯这样相对小康的国家有不断发展的希望。但是,这些国家都普遍处于严重的贫困之中。
17.中央王国
中国,香港,台湾
按国际货币基金组织最近的预测,中国的国内生产总值在十年之内还不太可能超过美国,但它无疑是当今世界的新兴超级国家。这个国家的民族认同感和历史优越感依然很显著。汉族占其人口的90%以上,是世界上最大的单种族文化民族。这个国家的文化惯性,许多外国公司正在学会适应它,使打入这个巨大的市场变得更加困难。中国对资源不断增长的需求可以从其在非洲、玻利瓦尔共和国、狂野中东等地的经济扩张中看出。然而,这个国家也面临众多问题:一个根深蒂固的集权政体、贫富分化、环境恶化。人口也正在迅速老龄化,这个问题在以后30年内将越来越突出。
18.东盟橡胶带
柬埔寨,印度尼西亚,老挝,马来西亚,菲律宾,泰国,越南
这些国家有丰富的矿产资源、淡水资源、橡胶原料,还有品种繁多的食品,但不同程度地困扰于政局不稳。这些国家都正在努力实现工业化和经济多元化。除了马来西亚,其他国家的居民收入都不高,但这些国家有可能会成为继中国之后下一个经济高速增长的热点地区。
19.幸运的国家
澳大利亚,新西兰
居民收入与北美差不多,尽管这些国家的经济较为单一。作为移民国家和共同的盎格鲁-撒克逊文化继承者,他们在文化上亲近北美和英国。但地理位置和以贸易主导的商品经济意味着中国和印度也许会成为他们未来的主要贸易伙伴。
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